The analysis site 19FortyFivespecializing in foreign policy and national security affairs, published a report titled “Breaking the Impasse…A Strategic Framework for Resolving the Sahara Conflict.”
This paper, written by Amine Ghoulidi, a researcher at Britain's University of King's College, examines whether the next US administration can play a role in resolving this protracted conflict. According to the report, the recent rapprochement of the positions of France and Spain creates a context which deserves particular attention.
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The report argues that a resolution of the Sahara conflict could allow the United States to progress on three strategic axes. First, limit the expansion of Chinese influence in a significant area between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Second, reassert U.S. influence in contested areas. Third, strengthen ties with reliable partners. The document emphasizes that inaction could, on the contrary, favor Chinese interests in the region, given the intensification of China's economic and security partnerships in North Africa.
The report notes that the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara has changed the situation. France's recent position has, for its part, contributed to the emergence of a certain consensus among the members of the Security Council, which could promote lasting peace. According to the document, a solution based on current policy frameworks is a possibility to consider, which could generate momentum for broader regional initiatives. The Moroccan autonomy plan is presented as a basis for a solution which is gaining recognition, unlike options considered unrealistic such as partition.
The report highlights the current consensus between major players like France and Spain as a factor to take into account. Mauritania, a partner of the West and close to France, could potentially join this consensus. The convergence of these actors, who all have an interest in the stability of the region, constitutes a situation that should not be overlooked.
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The report also highlights that the region's economic and strategic potential remains largely untapped. The competition between world powers, notably Russia and China, for an increased presence in the region, including in the Sahara, complicates the situation. Iran's growing influence in the region, via its links with the Polisario, is also mentioned. Faced with the expansion of Chinese economic influence in Morocco, the United States is called upon to define a strategic direction.
The document suggests a transition from multilateral to bilateral mechanisms. This could include the end of the MINURSO mission, considered unproductive, and the replacement of the Personal Envoy of the United Nations Secretary-General for the Sahara with more direct American diplomatic efforts.
A measured approach towards Algeria is also mentioned. It would be a question of finding a balance between the recognition of its regional ambitions and the need for responsible behavior. Direct negotiations, led by the United States, are presented as an alternative to previous multilateral efforts. Algeria's status as a regional power, due to its size and resources, must be taken into account, while encouraging it to adopt a responsible attitude. At the same time, the United States should encourage Morocco to present a detailed and realistic plan for implementing its autonomy initiative.
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