No matter what Justin Trudeau does, everything points to a federal election in the spring

(Ottawa) Canada appears headed for a spring federal election now that the New Democratic Party (NDP) has promised to bring down the Liberal government early next year, whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains in power or not .

Political observers are talking about many scenarios that could occur in the coming months, after the political tumult that rocked the Trudeau government last week. A federal election campaign in the spring seems to be the hypothesis that garners the most support.

The exact timing is still very uncertain, but the most likely course of events would be that the government falls by the end of March, then a general election takes place in April or May, according to Yaroslav Baran, who is co-founder of the Pendulum Group and former chief of staff to Conservative House Leader Jay Hill.

“The most likely thing would be that the government falls somewhere between the end of February and the end of March,” he said. In this scenario, the election would take place in April or May.

If the federal government is disavowed in a vote of confidence in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister will then be obliged to go to Governor General Mary Simon to inform her of the situation and advise her on the timetable for the elections.

The campaign period is a minimum of 36 days and a maximum of 50 days, according to Elections Canada.

The NDP ready to bring down the government

The events that occurred in Ottawa last week could precipitate things, since the sudden resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland dealt a major blow to Mr. Trudeau's hold on his party.

While Mr. Trudeau faces pressure, both internal and external, to resign, he is said to be now considering his future. The Prime Minister's office did not respond when The Canadian Press attempted to find out what Mr. Trudeau's plans were for the holiday break.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has vowed he will help defeat the Liberal government in a confidence vote when Parliament returns. The Conservatives, firmly ahead in the polls, have called for elections throughout the fall, while the Bloc Québécois has also called for elections early in the new year.

Mr. Singh could still change his mind and many scenarios remain possible, such as an opposition party negotiating gains in the budget and supporting the government until the fall, but this scenario seems less likely .

“It doesn't make much sense anymore to make some sort of deal and be a partner of the government that you're going to have to vilify a few months later,” Mr. Baran stressed. The next elections must take place no later than the fall.

“Clearly, the Liberals no longer have the support of any of the opposition parties. The likelihood of a spring election is therefore high, whether the government prorogues or not,” according to Brittney Kerr, who is a founding partner of Framepoint Public Affairs and who co-chaired the Liberal campaign in 2019.

” Person [au cabinet du premier ministre] “will not lose sight of how complex the political equation is to win, given the overwhelming public sentiment in favor of the Conservatives, coupled with the Prime Minister's long tenure,” she said.

Is the extension really useful?

The government can always prorogue Parliament, which would have the effect of interrupting work for several months. This could give the Liberal Party time to mount a leadership race if Mr. Trudeau decides to step down.

But Mr. Baran believes that such a measure would not take him very far, because the opposition parties all seem ready to go to the polls. And in any case, Parliament must resume its work to approve the finances and continue to pay civil servants.

“If the Prime Minister prorogues Parliament, this allows him to not have to face Parliament on January 27. It can therefore save time for planning, regrouping, etc. But it would be really difficult for this extension period to last beyond the end of March,” he said.

Do not neglect the arrival of Trump

A possible leadership race would be different from previous ones in the Liberal Party. When Mr. Trudeau was elected leader in 2013, the race lasted about six months. However, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives elected Kim Campbell in about three months.

Michael Wernick, a former clerk of the Privy Council, believes that proroguing the House of Commons at the very moment when Donald Trump is inaugurated president, on January 20, would deprive Canada of any possibility of reacting to possible sudden decisions in Washington.

“The question is not whether the Prime Minister can prorogue Parliament. It's more about whether he should do it. I have the feeling that it would be a very bad choice to let our guard down before January 20. I think we need Parliament to be there and functional,” he argued.

Liberals have often said that an experienced government must be in place to deal with an unpredictable president like Mr. Trump. The opposition parties are of the opinion that the population should choose a stronger leader than Mr. Trudeau to stand up to the Trump administration.

According to Mr. Wernick, Canada should seek to hold elections sooner rather than later.

“The best thing for the country would be to hold the election as soon as possible and make it very clear who Canadians have chosen to lead us,” he said.

“The more we prolong this theater, the more we drag things out, the more we weaken the country,” in his opinion.