Avian flu: around sixty human contaminations detected in the United States, can Europe remain spared?

Avian flu has been attacking birds and poultry farms for thirty years. It is now circulating increasingly among mammals, most of them domestic. And ultimately, the virus could even emerge as a threat to humans. Faced with danger, the United States is, this year, on the front line.

On the other side of the Atlantic, in the space of a year, more than 840 herds of dairy cows were affected by the disease. Traces of the virus have been detected in seals, bears, otters and even dogs and cats. The recent evolution of avian influenza suggests that it circulates in more than 30 different species of mammals.

Researchers speak of a “panzootic”

Unheard of in recent years. Researchers therefore speak of a “panzootic”, in other words a pandemic in animals. Enough to undermine the Biden administration, accused of not having taken the problem head on when the first cases of infections in cattle were noted almost a year ago. After months of procrastination, dairy farmers and processors are now required to provide, at the request of the authorities, samples of raw milk in order to identify the possible presence of the virus, since December 16.

The growing number of infections in mammals worries experts who fear that high circulation of the disease could facilitate a mutation of the virus. The strain could, in the months to come, be able to contaminate human cells much more easily. The disaster scenario with human-to-human infections, as may have been the case during the Covid-19 pandemic?

The recent detection of avian flu in people with no known contact with an infected animal reinforces fears in this regard. A recent study published in the journal Science estimates that the virus would only need one mutation before it more easily contaminates the human body.

According to Professor Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist at the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva, only three mutations of the virus are currently necessary before H5N1 becomes highly transmissible to humans.

In this context, several elements suggest that “avian flu is knocking on our door and could trigger a new pandemic”, estimates Meg Schaeffer, epidemiologist at the American SAS institute. It now remains to assess the virulence of the virus on organisms.

First serious case of human contamination with the H5N1 virus

The recent detection of a first serious case of human contamination with the H5N1 virus in the United States raises fears of the worst. The patient, hospitalized in Louisiana and aged 65, is in “critical condition” and “suffers from a severe respiratory illness”. Before him, around sixty virus contaminations have been detected in the United States since the start of the year.

Despite everything, the American health authorities are reassuring, affirming that their assessment of the risk to public health has not changed and remains “low”. “No spread of avian influenza (subtype) H5 from person to person has been detected,” they said.

Another factor that invites optimism: Europe currently seems spared from the disease. In France, no outbreak of contamination has been declared for a month… Even if the Ministry of Agriculture calls for “constant vigilance”.