After marking his opposition to a budget agreement negotiated in the American Congress, Donald Trump gave his approval on Thursday to a new version proposed by the Republicans, making it possible to consider the possibility of avoiding a paralysis of the federal state before Christmas.
• Also read: Trump supports new text and avoids budgetary paralysis
• Also read: Unbelievable political influence: should we call him “President Musk”?
But in the event of non-adoption by the American Senate, mainly Democratic, before Friday midnight, the United States will experience paralysis (shutdown) partial, that is to say the closure of certain public services which will disrupt the functioning of many sectors.
Getty Images via AFP
Who will be affected?
If no agreement is reached by Friday, many civil servants will find themselves unemployed, or “875,000 workers,” according to Shai Akabas, expert at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington.
“1.4 million” people “would continue to work, as they are considered to provide essential services”, such as air traffic control and maintaining public order.
Civil servants will receive their salaries at the end of the shutdownselon Bernard Yaros d’Oxford Economics.
Such a paralysis “would force hundreds of thousands of federal employees […] to work during the holiday period without receiving a salary,” warned the federal government employees union (AFGE) in a press release published Thursday.
“This can cause major financial disruption for households where one member works for the federal government,” said Mr. Akabas.
During the shutdowns of 2013 and early 2018, “about 850,000 of the 2.1 million federal employees [hors service postal] had been laid off,” recalls the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CFRB), a bipartisan organization.
What consequences?
Each ministry or agency establishes its own plan in the event of shutdownbut essential services – such as border protection, hospital medical care, maintenance of public order and maintenance of the electricity grid – continue to operate.
Previous times, expenditures linked to pensions as well as the health of low-income and elderly people (Medicare and Medicaid programs) had also been maintained, but registration requests had been postponed, underlines the CFRB.
National parks could also be affected,rangers» (guards and guards) who take care of it being federal civil servants. In 2013, more than 400 parks were closed in the country, with the loss of revenue estimated at $500 million. In 2018-2019, however, the majority of parks remained open without offering services to visitors, but damage was reported and trash cans were overflowing.
For how long?
The duration of a possible shutdown remains unknown for the moment, but Bernard Yaros estimates that it could extend up to two weeks, a usual pay period in the United States.
“Pressure to resume government operations would quickly mount as federal employees lose their paychecks and worry they won’t be able to receive another one,” he added.
The shutdown the longest in US history lasted 34 days, in December 2018 and January 2019, under the presidency of Donald Trump.
What economic impact?
“It has been shown that shutdown have an impact on the US economy, reducing growth by about 0.2 percentage points once the effects on the private sector are taken into account,” explained Thibault Denamiel, researcher at the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“The simple fact of having to prepare for a shutdown entails costs”, particularly for “the taxpayer”, underlined Shai Akabas.
Markets are not typically hit hard by such a shutdown, but analysts might wonder whether it is a warning sign from the new administration, added David Wessel of the Brookings Institution.
Related News :