“Russia could create considerable migratory pressure on Europe”

Moscow’s hybrid weapon

However, despite this current military presence, the expert remains cautious about the sustainability of this influence: “For now, I am rather pessimistic about Russia’s chances of staying in Syria. However, if they had decided to leave the country, they would have already left, but that is not the case yet.” Even if some bases appear partially abandoned, Russia still occupies key positions, confirming its desire not to cede this region to other powers. The country is trying as best it can to play a diplomatic and military card. For example, Moscow seems to be withdrawing part of its equipment and its men towards Marshal Haftar’s Libya. More generally, if Africa is not an objective in itself for Russia, it represents a potential area of ​​orchestrated disorder that could lead to major migratory consequences.

“Russia is capable of causing massive disorder, violence or massacres that would push African civilian populations to flee towards the north, creating a considerable migratory pressure on Europeexplains Tom Simoens. It could create flows of refugees towards the countries of northern and southern Europe. The latter, often on the front line to welcome refugees, would find themselves managing significant waves of migration, while migrants would seek to reach other European states. Such a situation would reignite internal political divisions within the EU on the question of the distribution of refugees, a debate already a source of tension.”

Russia could use this situation to accentuate European divisions and test the political and institutional cohesion of the EU, but also of NATO.

HTS to disband its armed wing

The military leader of the radical group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), leading the coalition that took power in Syria, announced Tuesday that “the next step” would be the dissolution of armed groups, starting with his own, for the melt into the future military institution. In an interview given in the coastal city of Latakia, Mour-haf Abou Qasra (nom de guerre: Abou Hassan al-Hamwi) also affirmed that the new power wanted to extend its authority over the Kurdish areas of the northeast of the country and that he “refused federalism”.

In the same interview with AFP, Mourhaf Abou Qasra called for an end to Israeli strikes and “incursions” which have intensified since the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8. He finally called on the West to remove HTS and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmad al-Chareh, from the list of “terrorist organizations”. HTS remains considered “terrorist” by the UN, the United States and some European countries.