Having converted to research, former French minister Rama Yade currently lives in the United States where she heads the Africa department of the influential American think tank Atlantic Council. Author of the work “The Lessons of America: Nation and Power”, published this year by “L’Harmattan”, she analyzes, in this interview, the place of Africa in the foreign policy of States -United as well as the international issues of the next presidency of Donald Trump.
US President Joe Biden visited Angola from December 2 to 4. His only and last trip to Africa. Doesn’t this trip come too late for a president at the end of his term?
As they say in the United States, presidents in transition are a “lame duck”, a lame duck, who landed in Luanda. No doubt the reason why it was not the Angolan President, João Lourenço, but his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tete Antonia, who came to welcome him when he got off the plane. Even if international circumstances (the October 7 terrorist attacks in Israel) and domestic circumstances (storm Milton) have twice led to a postponement of this promise of travel, many regret that this trip to sub-Saharan Africa by an American president, the first in 15 years, only arrives at the end of his mandate. The last president to set foot on African soil was Barack Obama. Biden nevertheless organized the only USA-Africa Summit in 8 years in December 2022, and received the President of Kenya on a state visit, the first by an African leader in May 2024, a first since 2008 when American President George Bush had welcomed the Ghanaian John Kufuor.
Africa was not a US foreign policy concern under Trump and even Biden. In your opinion, would there be any developments with this second term of Donald Trump?
If you asked them, each of these presidents would deny it! Under his first term for example, Donald Trump, who began by wanting to cut the budgets of development programs, ended up creating a new development agency better financed than his predecessors (development finance corporation-DFC) and a new initiative , Prosper Africa. It is true that the warnings about Chinese competition had been strong. As for Biden, a translation of his voluntarism, he can legitimately indicate that although his trip to Africa was late, we saw a whole series of dignitaries from his administration such as Vice-President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and most unusually, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen. Biden’s greatest achievement has undoubtedly been the Lobito Corridor, the flagship program of his New Partnership for Global Investment and Infrastructure, intended to compete with the Chinese Silk Road. He also supported the entry of the African Union as a permanent member of the G20, achieved during the G20 in New Delhi in September 2023 and his Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, defended, on behalf of the United States, the idea of two permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council. As for the outcome of Trump’s second term, it will depend on two elements: the Americans’ understanding of the strategic interest of Africa but also the capacity of Africans to have their own influence in the international game.
The race for competition is raging in Africa with other global or regional powers. Don’t the United States have some catching up to do in this area compared to other competitors like China?
The United States has fallen so far behind – I remind you that China has been Africa’s leading trading partner since 2009! – that these promises seemed late to many observers. Thus, the reform of the World Bank and the IMF is at a standstill while Africa has enormous financing needs. In terms of climate alone, the African Development Bank has estimated that Africa needs $2.8 trillion in financing between 2020 and 2030 to deal with the consequences of global warming.
The security area is a pillar of cooperation between Africa and the United States. Will the request for the departure of American troops from Niger not lead to an evolution of this cooperation?
The United States has often favored a security approach in Africa. But here, it is Russia which seems to have the upper hand. It is the leading arms seller on the continent. We have seen its influence grow in the Sahel thanks to cooperation between Wagner and the new Sahelian leaders. Pro-Russian propaganda has also strengthened, accompanying coups and a sovereignist narrative. Beyond the Aes, we saw what I call the Afro-sovereignist narrative taking hold in Chad and Senegal. The setbacks of Wagner and then Africa Corps against terrorist movements are nevertheless likely to weaken them in the region. During this time, in fact, the West is seeking to strengthen its alternative support points with Gabon and the Ivory Coast and to the East, with Kenya, which has become a “major non-NATO ally”. It is the first sub-Saharan state to gain this status.
At the US-Africa Leaders Summit in December 2022, a commitment to invest $55 billion in Africa over three years was made. On the economic level, has cooperation between Africa and the United States reached a certain level?
There was a desire to launch projects such as digital transformation with Africa or, within the framework of the G7, the PGII with the Lobito Corridor that I cited above. From space with the Artemis agreements, to health and food security, initiatives had been announced in the wake of the USA-Africa Summit, but nothing which will make it possible in the short term to compete with the 282 billion dollars achieved by trade between China and African economies. I’m not talking about middle powers that are accelerating like India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates…Nevertheless, the United States has assets that its competitors do not have: control of the Bretton institutions. Woods, the strength of the dollar, a strong influence on financial markets, while Africans need massive investments. An American soft power which continues to make all the dreamers of the earth think that when you want to succeed, it is to the United States that you have to go. From the conquest of space to Netflix, this country remains an attraction.
In general, how do you see American foreign policy with the upcoming presidency?
The current transition allows us to get an idea of the direction Donald Trump will take. While he is not yet in office – which will happen on January 20, 2025 – he has already designated his future government with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Hegseth for Defense if he passes the nomination milestone , a special envoy for Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, his advisor for the Middle East, Massad Boulos. These appointments suggest a desire to focus first on American disengagement from international crises. On the economic level, the logic of “America First” seems to prevail with the increase in customs duties announced to protect against Chinese and…European competition. We can wonder what will become of AGOA, this system of preferential tariffs from which African countries have benefited for 25 years and which must be re-discussed in 2025. I think that the transactional logic of the future administration should lead Africans to expect nothing in particular of Trump but lead them to change their approach by promoting their advantage and favoring negotiation in a more balanced, win-win relationship. As for the United States, rather than reproaching Africans for doing business with this or that, I think that their strategy should rather consist of making a better offer than that of their competitors. Once again, like the rest of Europeans, I am convinced that they have the capacity. It remains to be seen whether they have the will.
With the return of Donald Trump, the Sino-American rivalry will increase. Or is it possible to move towards relaxation?
The trade war has already started under Biden who, in May 2024, quadrupled customs duties on Chinese electric vehicles. From this point of view, there is continuity in American trade policy towards China. I don’t see why it would stop. For the United States, this is an existential question.