(BFM Bourse) – The Paris Stock Exchange closes not far from its equilibrium point while the Barnier government is threatened by a motion of censure after the activation of article 49.3 to have the bill to finance the Social security.
The Paris Stock Exchange begins the week on an indecisive note, dependent on the latest developments on the French political scene.
The CAC 40 closes close to its equilibrium point (+0.02%), at 7,236.89 points this Monday, not without having hesitated between rising and falling during the session. Investors continue to monitor the risk of censorship from the French government. A risk which is increasingly emerging as the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, triggered article 49.3 on Monday to have the Social Security financing bill for 2025 adopted, without going through the vote.
A sword of Damocles
La France insoumise tabled a motion of censure in the name of the New Popular Front, just like the National Rally. They will be voted on in the National Assembly within 48 hours. The vote should therefore technically take place from Wednesday.
“After the hope aroused by concessions from the Prime Minister on certain measures carried out by the National Rally, it appears that these efforts are not enough. The RN confirmed its intention to vote on the motion of censure tabled in reaction to the use of 49.3 by “If investors had initially welcomed the government's concessions, they are now worried about the political strategy of the RN, which is fueling an escalation in political instability in France”, note the strategists at Sax Bank.
This political instability caused the euro to waver, which remained below $1.05, after the use of 49.3 by Michel Barnier. The single currency returned 0.9% to 1.0484 dollars. This favors luxury values, which have the strongest increases in the CAC 40: Hermès ends up 4.75%, followed by LVMH (+3.25%) and to a lesser extent Kering (+0.9% ).
On the bond market, the gap between the yield of the 10-year French debt security and that of the same maturity of Germany, a barometer of investor confidence, is currently widening to more than 88 basis points (0, 88 percentage point).
“This instability has repercussions on the financial markets: rates (on 10-year French debt securities), which were falling, are rising again to reach 2.91% (+0.70%). The spread ( gap, Editor's note) with Germany widens to more than 87 basis points, erasing the previous lull Investors are punishing the lack of vision and the growing uncertainty, while the objective remains to reduce the public deficit to. 5% by 2025. This objective will be a key indicator for regaining their confidence in French finances,” continue the strategists at Saxo Banque.
Exit from the road for Stellantis
On the value side, Stellantis, the bottom of the CAC 40, fell 6.4% after the announcement of the unexpected departure of its general director, Carlos Tavares, who resigned on Sunday. Which adds short-term uncertainty to the value.
Excluding the flagship index, Wordline finished sharply up 14%, driven by a return of speculation after Reuters reported that private equity funds had started examining potential buyout offers.
Icade limits its gains to 0.10% after announcing the increase in its net current cash flow objective for the 2024 financial year.
Ipsos returned 4.4%, the survey research group fell on the Paris Stock Exchange after indicating on Monday that it was in discussions with Kantar Media with a view to a potential merger, thus confirming information from the Reuters agency.
On other markets, oil is losing ground. The February contract on North Sea Brent returns 0.25% to $71.66 per barrel while the January contract on WTI listed in New York also loses 0.25% to $67.83 per barrel.
Sabrina Sadgui – ©2024 BFM Bourse
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