what should we expect after 49.3?

The Prime Minister is more than ever threatened with a motion of censure which should be voted on this Wednesday December 4 or Thursday December 5 in the National Assembly by a large majority of deputies from the New Popular Front (NFP) and the National Rally (RN ). France is on the verge of entering a political and institutional crisis.

Less than 72 hours before the fall? Unless there is a huge turnaround, Michel Barnier's government will fall by Thursday evening. The Prime Minister, who this Monday, December 2, triggered article 49.3 of the Constitution to have the Social Security budget adopted in the National Assembly without a vote, is now threatened by two motions of censure.

The one tabled by the New Popular Front should be voted on, the National Rally having promised to add its votes to those of the left. But what will happen next? BFMTV.com presents the – probable – course of the week.

• Macron has been anticipating the fall of Barnier for several days and is testing names

Even before 49.3 triggered by Michel Barnier and the filing of motions of censure by the NFP and the RN, Emmanuel Macron was already anticipating the fall of his Prime Minister. Indeed, according to our information, the President of the Republic undertook physical and telephone meetings last week with various interlocutors to test the names of successors to Michel Barnier.

However, Emmanuel Macron's services publicly denied at the end of November comments attributed to the head of state and reported by Le Parisien: “The government will fall. She (Marine Le Pen) will censor it at some point and sooner than that. 'we don't think so.'

The Constitution is clear: only Emmanuel Macron can appoint the Prime Minister who will succeed Michel Barnier in the event of censorship. Several sources indicate to BFMTV that the President of the Republic is not leaning towards appointing a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front. “He doesn’t see the solution on the left,” confides a relative to BFMTV.

“Even Bernard Cazeneuve, I'm not sure that it wouldn't cause the loss of part of the Republican Right,” said another source, before specifying: “it might perhaps have worked in September, I doubt it.” .

• The motion of censure voted by the NFP and the RN, makes way for current affairs government

Since the start of the school year and the arrival of Michel Barnier in Matignon, the situation has not changed in the National Assembly: no bloc (NFP, “common base” or RN) has an absolute majority and all could be censored by the other two. This will most likely be the case this week for the government composed of ministers from the “common base” (Les Républicains-Renaissance).

The motion of censure tabled by the New Popular Front this Monday will be debated in the National Assembly by the end of the week, this Wednesday at the earliest. Marine Le Pen and the National Rally will vote for it, announced the leader of the far-right deputies. Unless there is a huge turnaround, it will therefore be widely adopted.

As soon as the results of the vote are announced by Yaël Braun-Pivet in the hemicycle, Michel Barnier will no longer be Prime Minister: the government will resign and while awaiting the appointment of a new executive, Michel Barnier and his government team will only manage the current affairs. In the Senate, the debates currently underway on the finance bill will stop immediately.

• A new Prime Minister appointed quickly?

What happens next depends on Emmanuel Macron. After the resignation of Gabriel Attal last July, the President of the Republic took 51 days before appointing a new Prime Minister. This time, his relatives are pleading for a rapid appointment, BFMTV learned.

But who? On the left, Lucie Castets remains the official candidate of the NFP, but her name therefore seems to be excluded by the tenant of the Élysée. In the evening, the socialists pleaded for the appointment of “a Prime Minister who shares the values ​​of the left” and “open to compromise”.

On the right and in the center, the names of Sébastien Lecornu, François Bayrou, Bruno Retailleau and even Gérard Larcher were mentioned, according to our colleagues from RTL. Emmanuel Macron can also… rename Michel Barnier. An option that could trigger the anger of parliamentarians.

As for the RN, he still keeps the Jordan Bardella option. But “not now”, said Julien Odoul on BFMTV this Monday. “We can clearly see that, without a majority, a course for the country is impossible. We hope that there will soon be a dissolution, when this is possible, with a National Rally majority,” said the Yonne MP.

• No new elections before next July, unless…

What to do, therefore, in the face of a political and institutional crisis that France has not experienced since the last government censorship, in 1962? At the time, the President of the Republic Charles de Gaulle had called new legislative elections. Problem: Emmanuel Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly before next July.

“Our Constitution is clear: when there is a serious political crisis, the President of the Republic has three possibilities: reshuffle, dissolution and resignation,” Marine Le Pen pleaded to the press. The leader of La France insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon also renewed his call for the resignation of the tenant of the Élysée. “The fall of Barnier is confirmed. Macron will be next,” promised the president of the rebels in the National Assembly Mathilde Panot.

At the end of November, an Elabe poll for BFMTV revealed that 63% of French people are in favor of Macron resigning in the event of government censorship.

In the event of Emmanuel Macron's resignation, an early presidential election will be organized within 35 days, as provided for in the Constitution. But this hypothesis seems to have been brushed aside for months by the main person concerned.

In June, between the two rounds of the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron ruled out resigning “whatever the result of the legislative elections”including therefore in the event of an unprecedented political crisis.