BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) recommends accumulating the Itissalat Al-Maghrib (IAM) stock in portfolios with a target price of 107.6 dirhams (DH), i.e. an upside of 24% compared to the price on November 20, 2024.
Incorporating a risk-free rate down to 3.26% (vs. 3.59% previously) and a risk premium up to 8.80% (vs. 8.2% previously), the cash discounting model -future flows -DCF- used shows a target price of 107.6 DH, i.e. an upside of +24%, specifies BKGR in its “Flash – Company update”.
And note that this valuation does not take into account either the impact of 5G on revenues or the weight of future investments linked to it.
According to BKGR, the amount settled in the context of the dispute with WANA does not impact the valuation of the company because it is not included in the gross operating surplus (EBE).
At the end of the first nine months of the year, Maroc Telecom recorded a slight decrease in consolidated turnover of -0.8% (+0.7% at constant exchange rate) to 27.46 billion dirhams, sustained mainly by the good performance of the activities of the African subsidiaries.
In the third quarter alone, the Group’s consolidated revenues showed a slight contraction of -0.8% yoy and virtual stagnation sequentially at MAD 9.20 billion.
For its part, the published net profit share of the group (RNPG) shows a depreciation of 2.3%, passing 4.49 billion dirhams at the end of September 2024, mainly weighed down by the charge relating to the IAM/WANA dispute, the amount of which was fully settled at end of September 2024.
In terms of investment, Maroc Telecom mobilized a budget of MAD 5.26 billion, down 8.1% from one year to the next, i.e. a CAPEX/CA ratio (excluding frequencies and licenses) of 19. 1% compared to 20.7% at the end of September 2023.
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