Winter will not live up to its reputation in Quebec

In short:

• Promising start to the season in Quebec;

• Snowy winter for northwestern Quebec;

• Dominance of mildness for the end of December, January and February;

• Mixtures of precipitation with snow, freezing rain and rain;

• Winter is not going to last this year.

Missed appointment

Meteorologists predict that Quebec will miss its appointment with winter 2024-2025. Depending on the models and the play of air masses, the context proves to be conducive to mildness. Overall, above normal temperatures are anticipated for the December-January-February quarter. However, the start of the weather season will be encouraging for lovers of outdoor activities. Even the southern sectors of the province will be treated to a winter landscape and all hopes will be high.

“December will be the coldest month of the three compared to normal,” explains André Monette, head of meteorology. We expect a typical month with near-normal temperatures for the start of winter. With a cold start, there is a greater chance of a white Christmas. December will not necessarily be representative of the rest of the season. »

La Niña dissipated

N.B. : La Niña is a phenomenon that refers to surface water in the equatorial Pacific colder than normal by at least 0.5°C. Conversely, El Niño represents a warm water anomaly of 0.5°C and above in the same region.

Among the actors who influence the course of the winter season in Quebec, there is the situation in the equatorial Pacific. La Niña is currently of interest to meteorologists because this phenomenon can change the shape of our winter. However, even if a La Niña episode is confirmed in the coming weeks, its reign will be short-lived and its intensity relatively low. Additionally, to the north and west in the Pacific, the waters are abnormally warm. This situation is unusual. Note that when the atmosphere reacts positively in a La Niña context, Quebec is entitled to a milder and more active winter than normal.

“The water temperature in the northwest Pacific is currently record high,” explains André Monette. We will have a winter in a weak La Niña context. It is even possible to never reach the cold water anomaly at 0.5°C from normal. What is expected despite everything is a domination of a trough in the west and a ridge in the east of the continent with an active jet stream passing near the Belle Province. Consequently, Quebec will fall into mild weather. »

For all tastes

In January and February, southern Quebec will have to be patient to only receive snow. It’s more of a mix of precipitation with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. The northwest of the province will be the winning region when it comes to snowflakes. This is partly explained by the track of the systems which, according to forecasts, will take the northern trajectory.

“A winter of all kinds of storms,” anticipates Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist. Snow in the north and episodes of rain and wind are on the menu for the south. Less dense and frequent snow, like recent winters, which will be combined with rain. Which will eventually erase anything that might be on the ground. »