Can we really speak of a “third world war” in the eyes of international law?
For Olivier Corten, “there is no real legal problem with having this opinion since there is no legal concept of world war. Given the involvement, on the one hand, of North Korea and, on the other hand, of Western states which substantially help Ukraine, Valeri Zalouzhny considers it a Third World War. It’s his right. There are no legal issues“, explains the professor at ULB.
Frédéric Dopagne goes in the same direction on a legal level: “This is a thunderous statement. Legally, in international law, there is no Third World War, no international conflict beyond Ukraine and Russia, and also arguably beyond North Korea. To date, there has been no armed conflict between the United States and Europeans against Russia. Same story for the professor of international and European law Pierre d’Argent, who considers that this declaration is “an opinion of a gentleman, but which does not mean much“, having no legal significance.”It’s a bit of a scary statement and I think we’re going to do everything we can to prevent reality from reflecting this statement, that’s all.“, indicates Pierre d’Argent.
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What are the criteria for asserting a “world war” situation?
“There is no particular criterion. What international law says is under what conditions a war can be started,” explains Olivier Corten. “The problem is rather political: how far do we want to go from the moment Russia is a nuclear power? Legally, there is no limit to the number of states involved and their involvement. And if this conflict were called a “World War”, what would that change? “Legally, nothing“, says Mr. Corten.
Pierre d’Argent flows in the same direction. He adds that today, “in international law, there no longer exists a declaration of war.” According to him, “the criterion of war is a material criterion of armed conflict between the armed forces of two States”.
For Frédéric Dopagne, this notion of armed conflict is not present today between the United States and the Europeans facing Russia. “The criterion for tipping into an armed conflict is not always entirely clear, it must be recognized. But finally, we have not crossed the threshold“, specifies the professor. “There would be military involvement from European states if, for example, there were troops sent to the ground and they took part in hostilities. There would also be belligerence if Europeans, Americans or others took part in aerial combat over Ukraine, including establishing a no-fly zone to protect Ukraine from missile attacks. Russians. So there, yes, there would be sufficient military involvement to say that there is an armed conflict, but we are not at that point at all.“, he adds.
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What about the involvement of actors on the Russian side? All three experts agree that involvement from North Korea and Belarus is off-limits. Pyongyangcannot send its troops to aid a war of aggression. Just as Belarus, from the very beginning, could not lend its territory for a war of aggression”, explains Olivier Corten.
Is the word of a former commander legitimate to assert this?
For Frédéric Dopagne, the legitimacy of Valeri Zaloujny to make such statements can be called into question: “He was fired, he is no longer in charge. It’s a more personal statement than anything else, but it still carries some weight. Valeri Zalouzhny knows the military situation, he was at the forefront when there was the invasion in 2022, but everyone knows that he does not represent the official position of Ukraine since he no longer has of responsibility“.
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Is this a statement that will change the course of things?
“If I understand correctly, the desire was to make Westerners react to obtain more help to better prepare in anticipation of an escalation. I understand that Valeri Zaluzhny has presidential ambitions in Ukraine, so there may be ulterior political motives.” believes Frédéric Dopagne. “This declaration, isolated, I don’t think it will change the situation. There are also thunderous declarations regularly from the Russian side with a lot of threats. We have to see the actions“.
Olivier Corten explains that these remarks can be seen as an appeal from Ukrainians to Westerners: “It’s a statement, it’s a position. What he means by that, I guess, is ‘the conflict has already gone global anyway, so come help us’. I can understand, in the situation in Ukraine, that this is what they want, it is not illegal to want that. If we answered positively, we would not be violating the law. However, would we do something appropriate? It’s something else“.
On the question of the continuation of the conflict, Pierre d’Argent affirms that the West is thinking about the deployment of troops. “I think what they have in mind is to deploy the troops off the coast of Belarus. This is something that I think is being considered at the moment. I’m not in secrets, nor a soldier, but Emmanuel Macro had mentioned it a few months ago. I think we’re getting there. Is this World War III? I don’t think so. I believe that Europeans will do everything they can to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.“
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