The return of Donald Trump to the White House has certainly delighted some around the world, but it invites us to reflect on the potential impacts of this “ come-back » on several key sectors, notably tourism. According to several analysts, its protectionist policy could slow down the global economic recovery and disrupt a tourism sector already weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Zoubir Bouhout, tourism expert, shared with Hespress FR an analysis where he details current and past economic dynamics as well as their implications for global tourism by 2030.
Known for his protectionist approach, Donald Trump could, according to Bouhout, reintroduce universal customs duties of up to 60% on Chinese products. The expert explains that these measures would have significant repercussions on major economic powers like China, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, which together represent 51% of global outbound tourism forecast for 2030.
By 2030, forecasts estimate that China will be the world’s largest source of tourists, with 251 million travelers, followed by Germany (151 million), the United States (146 million) and the United Kingdom (130 million). million). Together, these four countries would total 678 million tourists, or more than half of the expected global volume, estimated at 1.328 billion. However, economic instability induced by trade tensions could reduce households’ purchasing power and, therefore, their ability to travel.
Bouhout puts into perspective the evolution of global tourism under different American administrations. Under Barack Obama (2009-2016), economic recovery policies supported strong growth in exports and tourist arrivals. World GDP grew between 3.26% and 4.35% during this period, with a significant increase in international tourist flows.
On the other hand, under Donald Trump (2017-2020), protectionist measures slowed global economic growth. Despite an initial increase in global GDP of 3.82% in 2017, it slowed to 2.84% in 2019 before collapsing to -2.69% in 2020 under the effect of the pandemic. This period also saw global exports stagnate, directly impacting tourist flows.
Joe Biden’s presidency (2021-2024) has enabled a spectacular post-pandemic rebound, according to Bouhout’s analysis. It argues that in 2021, international tourist arrivals increased by 4%, reaching 415 million, and that this recovery accelerated in 2022 with an increase of 121%, bringing the total to 917 million. In 2024, the volume of arrivals is expected to reach 1.489 billion, marking an almost complete recovery of the sector.
However, according to Zoubir Bouhout, the return of Trump could compromise this positive dynamic, returning the sector to moderate or even stagnant growth.
A differentiated impact on the major tourist powers
Trump’s protectionist policies could have varying impacts depending on the region, according to Bouhout. The expert explains that China, the main source market for tourists, could suffer a significant reduction in its exports due to American customs tariffs. This situation would affect household income and slow down international travel.
Germany, already facing internal economic challenges, such as falling demand for electric vehicles and the closure of several factories, could see its exports decline further. This situation would further weaken German outbound tourism.
As for the United Kingdom, and after Brexit, Bouhout believes that it remains vulnerable to American trade policies. A possible limitation of British exports to the United States would complicate the country’s economic recovery and, in turn, its role in global tourism.
Despite these gloomy prospects, Bouhout insists on the resilience of the tourism sector in the face of crises. Between 2008 and 2024, global tourism went through several periods of turbulence. After the 2008 financial crisis, international arrivals increased from 930 million in 2008 to 1.239 billion in 2016. The COVID-19 pandemic marked a sharp drop to 398 million arrivals in 2020, but the rebound under Biden is testament to the capacity of the sector to recover, explains the expert.
Call to action to preserve tourism growth
Zoubir Bouhout’s analysis highlights the urgency for tourism stakeholders to adapt to an uncertain global environment. Protectionist policies, combined with other factors such as the energy and climate crises, accentuate the need for structural reforms in the sector.
According to the expert, the key to overcoming these challenges lies in international cooperation and investment in sustainable solutions. Countries must also strengthen their attractiveness by focusing on modern infrastructure and tourist experiences adapted to the new expectations of travelers.
Finally, the expert warns that the future of global tourism will be conditioned by the ability of decision-makers to navigate a volatile economic context. To conclude: ” Resilience and innovation are not options, but imperatives to ensure a sustainable recovery ».
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