Budget on the rise but selective consumers, “Black Friday” under pressure in the United States – 11/24/2024 at 5:00 a.m.

Despite slowed inflation, low unemployment and an increased budget, the American consumer is expected to remain selective during the traditional “Black Friday” markdown period at the end of November, focusing on the best bargains.

American consumers “are ready to open their wallets”, estimates the professional association Conference Board.

They “intend to spend more than last year, but inflation is reducing the reach of their dollars,” she adds.

A sentiment shared by Morgan Stanley, which expects certain categories, notably services, to remain neglected in favor of products and equipment, by “consumers continuing to be selective”.

According to a survey by the investment bank, around 35% of consumers plan to spend more than in 2023 but 64% of those questioned will keep their dollars if the promotions are not generous enough, that is to say greater than 20 %.

Neil Saunders, director at GlobalData, expects a good vintage but “not spectacular because consumers remain under pressure even if certain economic indicators (…) are moving in the right direction”.

The unemployment rate is stable at 4.1% and, although inflation rebounded slightly in October to +2.6% year-on-year compared to +2.4% in September, it is much less marked than the peak of + 9.1% reached in June 2022.

The fact remains that prices increased by more than 20% during the presidency of Joe Biden, in a context of global inflation after the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The perception that the situation is quite difficult persists among consumers (…) so some remain quite cautious and attentive to their spending,” Mr. Saunders explains to AFP.

The economy was a pillar of the campaign of Republican Donald Trump, who won the race for the White House by hammering out an argument focused on the cost of living.

This election should not influence the festive races.

– Customs tariffs –

On the other hand, if the increase in customs tariffs promised by the president-elect materializes, it would be reflected in prices.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), this could erode Americans’ purchasing power by as much as $78 billion per year.

If it is among the concerns of traders, this possible increase in customs duties does not yet worry consumers who should therefore not anticipate purchases this year, underlines Mr. Saunders.

The traditional holiday shopping season in the United States – from November 1 to December 31 – is characterized in 2024 by a very late “Black Friday” (November 29), which narrows the crucial period between Thanksgiving and Christmas .

But what, a few years ago, would have represented a major challenge in logistics and stock management, looks less arduous because promotions stamped “Black Friday”, or having the flavor of it, have been launched in advance, sometimes as early as October, especially on the internet.

This is particularly the case for the Walmart and Target supermarket chains, Best Buy electronics and Home Depot DIY. Amazon started on Thursday.

The NRF forecasts an increase of 2.5% to 3.5% year-on-year in spending linked to the end-of-year holidays, to reach $980 to $990 billion.

It should be higher on the internet, around 8% to 9%, to come close to 300 billion. With, for some Internet users, the help of artificial intelligence to find the best deal or the best gift.

This period includes “Cyber ​​Week”, with the big promotional days of “Black Friday” and “Cyber ​​Monday”.

Over the years, these are becoming more and more “seasonal promotions, a more spread out period, which starts very early and ends on Cyber ​​Monday”, notes Mr. Saunders, noting that merchants prefer this because it makes it easier to manage sales. stocks, recruitment, etc.

And it avoids the frightening images showing hordes of shoppers pouring into stores to grab bargains, after hours of waiting huddled at the doors.