France must not turn the other cheek

The weeks pass and nothing seems to be able to calm the upheavals which are shaking the island, which is also one of the most gangster-ridden French departments. The agreement proposed by the government in mid-October, which provided for a 20% reduction on the most consumed products, was not enough. The refusal to sign by the Rally for the Protection of Afro-Caribbean Peoples and Resources (RRPRAC) and its call for the continuation of the protest has reignited the crisis. If the RRPRAC now claims to dissociate itself from the violence, it was not always this way: its charismatic leader, Rodrigue Petitot, did not hesitate to justify the looting and destruction on Télé-Antilles on October 13. He also took part in roadblocks and planned to kidnap the Béké bosses of large-scale distribution.

So what are the real objectives of the RRPRAC? If the cost of living in this island department is a real subject, it appears above all as a pretext to push secessionist themes. Rodrigue Petitot, although arrested for drug trafficking, is close to Martinican independence circles. His entourage testifies to this, and particularly Aude Goussard, the secretary of the RRPRAC, former “regionalist” candidate in the 2024 legislative elections and long-time independence activist. She was a collaborator of Garcin Malsa, an environmentalist and independence figure in Martinique and founder of the Modemas party, who also invested in the protest against the high cost of living. In a recent interview, she referred to activist Alex Granville, a founding member of the Communist Party for Independence and Socialism (PKLS), as a “comrade.”

Azerbaijani interference

Since the start of the unrest, the RRPRAC has seen its action relayed on the various social networks of the Baku Initiative Group (BIG). The famous Azerbaijani state NGO has been active since 2023 with various pro-independence movements overseas (Pacific, Corsica, Antilles, etc.) via the organization of international conferences, support for the UN, the signing of cooperation agreements, etc. In October 2024, the BIG approached Kemi Seba, a pan-Africanist influencer financed by Moscow and close to Martinican independence circles. With this in mind, he gave speeches in Baku and at the UN (Geneva) denouncing French colonialism.

The BIG and Azerbaijan did not hesitate to fan the embers, upstream and downstream, of the clashes in New Caledonia in the spring, via cyberactivism actions, the organization of demonstrations and the financing of violent groups like the CCAT. A similar modus operandi is observed today in Martinique. The production of a documentary, in October 2023, on Martinique by the Azerbaijani channel CBC-TV, notably featuring Rodrigue Petitot and Aude Goussard, is no coincidence.

The proximity between the BIG and the Martinican independence ecosystem is increasingly documented. Among the most significant links, Marcellin Nadeau, deputy of the communist group (GDR) in the National Assembly and co-leader of the independence party Péyi-A with the Insoumis deputy Jean-Philippe Nilor. Solicited during conferences by the BIG, Marcellin Nadeau, for example, declared in November 2023 that France had “poisoned the people of Martinique”. On July 17 and 18, 2024, no less than three independence parties, Modemas, Palimas and the PKLS, went to a new conference in Baku in order to create an “international front for the liberation of the last French colonies”.

Caribbean desire

Why such activism? Because French overseas territories are as much a geostrategic asset as a point of vulnerability. The reason is the chronic underinvestment of the State in these territories. A situation well understood by France's competitors, including Azerbaijan. For Baku, it is a question of responding to the French commitment in favor of Armenia. However, we cannot exclude support from other powers, because these operations directly serve Russian, Chinese or even Turkish interests. For Ankara, operational support for BIG actions is also documented; just like the Chinese influence in the Kanak independence spheres.

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For “independence”, against the “békés” and repeat offender: Rodrigue Petitot, troubled figure of the protest in Martinique

It's the same thing in the Caribbean, with which China has been on the offensive for years. Indeed, the region has a high strategic value, as a crossing point between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. It is also the backyard of the United States, which has a strong presence there. Not to mention its energy, fishing and mining potential. Russia is also reinvesting in the region. The deployment of warships to Cuba in June is an epiphenomenon. Just like the Kremlin's recent declarations on the “unfinished decolonization” of French overseas territories in reference to the Martinican crisis.

Certainly, the audience of the BIG and Azerbaijan is still moderate and the problems of overseas France do not date from last year. However, Baku has managed to establish itself, at least in perceptions, as an important player in the unrest. Which gave even more cognitive impact to his actions. And everything suggests that the information war launched by Azerbaijan will gain further traction.

Since 2022, influence has become a strategic function. Several initiatives have since been carried out in this direction, within the armies and in certain administrations. This is still too little and timid and there is every reason to believe that the increase in power will necessarily take a few years. However, it is now that the French State must take control of its information space. It is also now that he must assume a more aggressive posture to destabilize his competitors on the same terrain. In France, the private sector has good capabilities in this sense. Given the situation, public-private synchronization would be more than desirable to carry out a rapid and effective response.