The scenario established by BMCE Capital Global Research takes into account a cereal harvest of 55 million quintals as well as a better boost in internal consumption, up 1.9 points, taking advantage of the reduction in tax pressure on wages and salaries. treatments.
BMCE Capital Global Research is approaching the next financial year with optimism. Projections established in this sense count on economic growth of 3.9% for 2025. This scenario was in fact established on the basis of a cereal harvest of 55 million quintals as well as a better boost to internal consumption. up 1.9 points benefiting from the reduction in tax pressure on wages and salaries. This is broadly what can be gleaned from the BMCE Capital Global Reserach “Strategy” publication.
“Marked by an easing of monetary tensions at the international level with both the FED and the ECB having opted for reductions in their key rates, the global economic context seems to be returning to a more favorable outlook, which could benefit our country more”, estimates BMCE Capital Global Research in its publication.
And to specify that “the efforts made in recent years to level up the performance of the Moroccan economy could find better echoes in the new configuration which is emerging, in particular with the victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential elections” . The signing of 22 agreements between Morocco and France worth 106 billion dirhams was also mentioned in this analysis as a catalyst of the first order, especially since this comes in the wake of the recognition of the France of the sovereignty of Morocco over its southern provinces.
“This new enthusiasm to be created should add to the overall dynamic expected for the years to come in view of the major sporting events that Morocco intends to organize and thus give a boost to the rate of economic growth, still insufficient for the moment,” explains BMCE Capital Global Research. And to recall: “The downward adjustment by the IMF of its economic growth forecasts for Morocco, now setting them at +2.8% for 2024, against +3.1% previously anticipated, confirms this excitement. This revision aligns with Bank Al-Maghrib’s estimates as well as our central scenario which expects growth of +2.8% and +2.6% respectively.
The IMF’s forecasts for 2025 also expect growth to return to 3.6%.
An adjusted projection compared to a previous estimate of +3.2%. It should be noted that BMCE Capital Global Research has kept its 2024 economic scenario and the mapping of risks and opportunities unchanged.
Morocco
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