The risk of epidemics in the next five years is “quite high”, warns ANSES – Libération
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The risk of epidemics in the next five years is “quite high”, warns ANSES – Libération

Dengue, chikungunya, Zika: Metropolitan France is increasingly exposed to viruses transmitted by tiger mosquito bites. In an expert report released this Friday, September 13, the health agency also warns of the risks of saturation of the fight and tensions in the healthcare system.

Fears are beginning to be confirmed. As the tiger mosquito becomes established in metropolitan France, health authorities and agencies are becoming concerned about the impact of arboviruses, the diseases they transmit – particularly dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika. The French National Agency for Food and Health Safety (ANSES) is adding to the concern this Friday, September 13: it estimates the risk “quite high” that epidemics occur “in the next five years”. The probability is “between 6 and 7, on a scale of 0 to 9”This threatens to saturate mosquito control services and the already struggling healthcare system.

The scientists’ warning is not new. In April 2023, the Committee for Monitoring and Anticipating Health Risks (Covars) warned the government of a risk of an increase in cases of these diseases transmitted by mosquito bites. “in the coming summers”. The Directorate General of Health had already contacted ANSES (in August 2022) so that it could precisely assess the probability of epidemics occurring. It must be said thatAedes albopictus – scientific name for the tiger mosquito – already causes annual epidemics overseas. Its establishment is more recent in mainland France, and dates back to the early 2000s. It is now present in 78 out of 86 metropolitan departments, compared to 70 in 2022. This number has increased 13-fold in the space of ten years.

More and more indigenous cases

Consequence: cases of dengue and chikungunya are only increasing in France. The first is a viral infection, most often benign, which can however lead to rare but serious complications; the second is rarely fatal but very painful, potentially disabling from a few weeks to several prolonged years. Around fifty indigenous cases of dengue, i.e. infected on site, were detected in 2023, after a record of 66 in 2022. For the moment, Public Health France has recorded 46 since May 2024.

So far, they have been identified in localized outbreaks and it has always been possible to trace the origin of the contaminations. And thus to carry out mosquito control operations in the surrounding area to prevent the risk of epidemics – the tiger mosquito is a poor traveler and bites a few hundred meters from its birthplace. “We speak of an epidemic from the moment when it is not possible to link all infected people to a focus. This means that transmissions escape the control system”specifies Emeline Barrès, one of the two coordinators of the expertise, quoted in the ANSES press release. But mix the presence of the tiger mosquito, climatic conditions favorable to its reproduction (in particular the accumulation of hot days and rain), the arrival of infected people from areas of high virus circulation, the possibility of saturation of the fight against mosquitoes as cases arise and you will obtain a cocktail capable of triggering an epidemic.

“The means of prevention and control of arboviruses could quickly become saturated”warns Anses. The Agency’s experts therefore recommend increasing resources: more money, more people mobilized and better equipment.The increase in the number of cases with current means would lead to a deterioration in the quality of operations, but also in the working conditions of those involved in surveillance.”

And a major epidemic also means repercussions on the healthcare system. “The risk may also exist if the provision of care, in particular general practitioners and emergency servicesis already saturated, as can be the case during the mosquito activity period”underlines Anses. This was the case in 2020 in the Antilles, where caregivers had to deal with Covid-19 and a dengue epidemic.

Faced with risks, it is therefore essential to anticipate. The Agency recommends first of all to better promote the experiences set up overseas and to train caregivers in risk factors, as well as in the warning signals of serious forms of diseases. An epidemic, even a weak one, could also affect the economy, mainly tourism, with a lower attendance of the territories concerned. And aggravate social inequalities. In addition to having a particular attention on disadvantaged people, Anses therefore advocates to better involve citizens in the fight, which remains for the moment very vertical.

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