COP29 | Minister Guilbeault not worried about the effects of Trump’s victory

Canada could be one of the main architects of consensus during the next international negotiations on climate change, indicates the federal Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, while trying to minimize the concerns raised by the recent electoral victory of Donald Trump.

“Our window to keep global temperatures from averaging 1.5 degrees Celsius is closing. We must all head in the same direction,” says Mr. Guilbeault.

The next international conference on climate change will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22. Observers expect tough negotiations. Participating countries will attempt to establish new targets for investments to combat climate change and implement new national plans.

The director of the International Climate Politics Hub, Catherine Abreu, believes that we are right to be cynical about the results of these negotiations.

Despite 30 years of negotiations, global greenhouse gas emissions have never been higher. Around 80% of the energy resources used across the planet come from fossil fuels. And lobbyists paid by oil companies are increasingly registering for the conference, observes M^me Abreu.

However, these conferences are a very important space for discussion, she adds.

“The agreements reached in this space are the foundations of almost all climate policies around the planet. »

Canadian priorities

Canada should have two main priorities: reaching a new agreement on climate finance and convincing other countries to implement ambitious plans to combat climate change.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must update their programs every five years. These new plans must be presented in 2025.

According to Julie Segal, a member of the board of directors of Environmental Defense, these two priorities are linked. The success of the conference will be judged if Canada and other rich countries commit to establishing financial targets that will enable ambitious climate change programs to be implemented.

“Canada must be an actor. He must set the bar high. It must recognize that rich countries like ours must better support more vulnerable countries,” she judges.

Various studies suggest that this new financial aid should exceed a trillion dollars.

Canada has often been the good apostle in past negotiations. Developed countries agreed in 2009 to increase their aid by $100 annually by 2020 to help developing countries fight climate change. It is recognized as one of the countries having contributed the most to mobilizing financial resources.

Mr. Guilbeault says he would be happy if Canada once again played its role of building bridges during the negotiations. While refusing to comment on the amounts at stake, he underlines the importance of helping developing countries have easy access to financing.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s return to power could overshadow the conference.

During his first term, he dismissed climate change as a hoax and abolished several important measures. He withdrew his country from the Paris agreement and signaled his intention to do so again.

Even if he will not be sworn in until January, some countries could use his victory as a pretext to derail the conference, laments Bill Hare, CEO of the think tank Climate Analytic.

“A lot of work will be needed following Mr. Trump’s election. We will have to ensure that the system does not collapse, but his victory will ease the pressure for a positive result in Baku,” he fears.

Mr. Guilbeault downplayed concerns by emphasizing that the current Biden administration will still represent American interests during the upcoming negotiations.

The Canadian minister even hopes that Elon Musk, a fervent ally of Donald Trump, will exert a positive influence on the next president, particularly in terms of electrification.