Olaf Scholz sans horizon
When everything is bad, it's better to remember the happy days. This is what Germany did yesterday by celebrating thirty-five years since the fall of the Berlin Wall. This will probably not be enough to forget the past week, which saw the government coalition explode. “It feels like we’re on a trashy reality TV show,” Assène, disappointed, Irene Mihalic, environmentalist MP and member of the outgoing majority.
The open crisis between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his former liberal FDP allies paves the way for early elections. But when to program them? Everyone wants to impose the most favorable voting date for their camp. For three days, the political class has been arguing over this choice of timetable. “We see how they are locked into their own logic of domestic politics despite calls for responsibility in the face of events in the United States and Ukraine,” notes Stefan Seidendorf, deputy director of the Franco-German Institute (DFI).
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In doing so, Germany confirms its status as the weak link in European politics. If the resigning liberal ministers were immediately replaced, the same is not true of their chiefs of staff and advisors. Thus the country no longer has an intergovernmental coordinator for transatlantic policy.
“Olaf is a puppet”, commented Elon Musk on his personal X account. This message, written in the language of Goethe, reminded Germany that it had been the favorite target of the first Trump administration. Its ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell, left an execrable memory. However, the latter could gain ground in Washington.
Faced with these ill winds, there could be an urgent need to put the government in order. On Friday, Friedrich Merz, president of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and big favorite for the chancellorship, therefore pleaded for legislative elections on January 19, the eve of Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office. “Otherwise, we offer him the greatest gift of his mandate, says Peter Altmaier, former minister of Angela Merkel. It is in our vital interest. »
At this stage, the polls announce a clear victory for the conservatives, who could quickly put together a coalition. But Olaf Scholz would have to ask the question of confidence – essential to trigger the dissolution – from next week, and not, as he envisages, in mid-January. According to Carlo Masala, expert in international politics and security, there is a gap between “the hysteria and the injunctions to act quickly which followed the election of Trump and what we are now hearing to explain to us that it would be impossible to vote before the end of March”.
On Wednesday evening, Olaf Scholz accused the liberals of ending the coalition because of their refusal to relax Germany's debt conditions, in a context of war in Ukraine where Europe must invest in its defense. “Pure cynicism”, chokes Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. This MEP from the Liberal Party has been fighting for months with the Chancellery over the sending of long-range Taurus missiles to the Ukrainians.
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The decision was systematically blocked by Olaf Scholz, who proclaimed himself “chancellor of peace”. He risks paying for this positioning. According to a poll published Friday, only 13% of Germans want him to run again. At 57%, they would favor a candidacy from the Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, who is much clearer on international security policy.
This is also the score that Friedrich Merz intends to play. In mid-October, he announced that he would deliver the Taurus to Ukraine. His determination on defense issues is reflected in an article published in The World this week. “But how to finance all this? This remains the big question in European debates, recalls Jacob Ross, researcher at the international policy think tank DGAP. It is paradoxical to see Merz signaling to France that he will be more open to European solutions but at the same time refusing common funding. » The economic recession, with two years of declining GDP, is forcing Germany to weigh each of its expenses. Shortly after Trump's election, the CDU leader reaffirmed his commitment to the debt brake. He also did not rule out reappointing Christian Lindner, the leader of the liberal party and champion of austerity, to the Ministry of Finance.
Von der Leyen without strategy
Donald Trump I love nothing more than feeling like I'm getting a good deal. Ursula von der Leyen (VDL), who already practiced republicanism during her first term, understood this well. She therefore did not wait for him to return to the White House to call him this week and offer him a deal: replace Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), which Europeans still buy at high prices, with LNG. American.
“It’s a subject that we approached without really discussing it in depth,” said the President of the European Commission on Friday, after a European summit in Budapest. She also expressed her wish to” engage “ the conversation with the 47th American president, “to first look at what the common interests are and then to negotiate”.
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However, VDL leaves with a handicap. “As a German and a woman, I would not put her on the front line, because Trump is very sexist and Germany is his nemesis,” says Luuk Van Middelaar, co-founder of the think tank Brussels Institute for Geopolitics. Despite everything, it will be up to it to preserve the federal competence of the European Commission in matters of trade against attempts at arrangements between European capitals and Washington. On geostrategic issues, such as Ukraine, “leaders must think among themselves and decide on a distribution of roles”, adds the historian, for whom “the question of European representation in the White House” is not decided.
It is true that alongside the German leader others can play this role. Emmanuel Macron can boast of being able to speak to Donald Trump “from president to president”, especially since he too knew him during his first term. He is not the only one. In July 2018, it was the skill of the Dutchman Mark Rutte who made it possible to come out on top of a NATO summit which had turned into a free-for-all. As Prime Minister, he convinced the American that if the Europeans were finally approaching 2% of GDP in military spending, as they had committed to, it was… thanks to him.
Today, Rutte is the Secretary General of the Alliance. “He was chosen by the Allies, including Joe Biden’s entourage, in the event of a Trump victory, because he is a fine psychologist,” says Van Middelaar. In this new position, he can no longer be the voice of Europe but should be a good transmission belt. The Europeans therefore have a few weeks left to refine a strategy. It won't be too much.
Giorgia Meloni sans complexe
The head of the Italian government had everything to gain from the American presidential election. Because if Giorgia Meloni was able to establish good relations with Democrat Joe Biden, she can now rely on her ideological proximity with Donald Trump.
His links with the billionaire's camp are not new. In 2018, she received her ex-advisor Steve Bannon at the annual meeting of his far-right Brothers of Italy party. “The President of the Council intends to play on this historic friendship to grant herself a role of privileged interlocutor with the United States, observes Vittorio Emanuele Parsi, professor of international relations at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan. His lieutenants are already building their narrative that Trump and Meloni are the only G7 leaders to emerge victorious in an election. » A version of History which omits the triumph of British Labor Keir Starmer.
The Meloni model seduces as much as it worries
To gain favor with Washington, Meloni is also counting on the support of his « ami » Elon Musk, who has become an essential planet in the Trump galaxy. On Thursday, the two called each other. The Italian subsequently published a photo of them on the X network, owned by Elon Musk. This seduction operation by Meloni must be placed in the context of the trade war that Trump wants to wage against Europe. An increase in tariffs would do great harm to Italy, of which the United States is the third largest customer. Furthermore, the Republican could decide to favor bilateral agreements with the Europeans.
A strategy “dangerous” for the European Union, but which would coincide with the sovereignist ambitions of Giorgia Meloni, observes Vittorio Emanuele Parsi. In an EU lacking leadership, the Italian is in any case starting with a head start. “His government is stable and its majority still enjoys a good popularity rating,” explains Lorenzo Castellani, researcher at Luiss University in Rome.
In Italy, however, the post-fascist leader is not the only one to dream of this first American role. Matteo Salvini, vice-president of the Council and leader of the League, quickly recalled this week that he was the only one to openly support the Republican's candidacy. After his victory, he exulted, saying it meant the return of peace to Ukraine. But, according to Lorenzo Castellani, Matteo Salvini has more to lose on this issue than Giorgia Meloni: “More than a Trumpophile, he is first and foremost a Russophile. And the two are not always compatible. »
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