American presidential election | Where have Trump and Harris made the most gains?

A county-by-county analysis of the results of the last two presidential elections shows who, Republicans or Democrats, gained the most in each corner of the United States from 2020 to 2024. Five regional phenomena are worth examining closer.

New England

Quebecers know the region well, with its progressive tradition. Donald Trump has made astonishing inroads there. Rockingham County, New Hampshire is a suburb of Boston. A Democrat in 2020, he switched to the Republicans. Editor-in-chief of New Hampshire BulletinDana Wormald writes to us that Trump has surfed on different fears: “High prices and an unshakeable belief thatestablishment is responsible also played a big role. »

Suburbs of New York and Philadelphia

Trump grew by 11 percentage points in the Bronx and Queens. The Republican leader also performed well in the suburbs of New York and Philadelphia. Eight counties changed allegiance to the Republicans last Tuesday. “We are at a tipping point,” writes Lawrence Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University on Long Island. We will have to see, he emphasizes, if this is a lasting change in the traditionally Democratic working electorate in these suburbs or if it is the story of an election.

South Florida

With just over a million voters, Miami-Dade is the most populous of the 77 counties that have gone for Trump in 2024. A large city whose citizens are largely of Latin descent, Miami is traditionally Democratic. But she was more sensitive to the Trumpist message, writes Mitch Perry, seasoned reporter for Florida Phoenix : “He managed to convince voters from Cuba or Venezuela that the Democrats were socialists. »

Border with Mexico in Texas

Texas had the largest number of counties (9) switching from Democrats to Republicans. One of the most populous is Hidalgo, which includes the city of McAllen. “The border is culturally conservative,” writes Matthew Watkins, editor-in-chief of Texas Tribune. “Its residents are pro-arms, anti-abortion and skeptical of LGBTQ+ issues. The emphasis Trump placed on these issues played a role. » Of the 18 border counties of Texas, 16 voted Democratic in 1996. There would be only 4 in 2024.

Plains and Utah

M^me Harris increased the Democratic vote in many Plains counties, such as Nebraska and Kansas. “But these are light trips (nudges) more than elk (swings)”, comments Professor Eric Thomas in the Kansas Reflector. This growth was strongest in Davis County, north of Salt Lake City, Utah. Mormons make up two-thirds of the electorate in this state. They are very skeptical of the Christian nationalist right that Trump relies on.

Note: We have rounded numbers to one decimal place, which may make some differences appear to be exaggerated by 0.1 percentage points.

Source: Associated Press. Data collected as of November 6 in the evening.