Olaf Scholz in the minority, budget on hold… Everything you need to know about the crisis in Germany

GERMANY – Confusion reigns at the top of state in Germany in recent hours. Chancellor Olaf Scholz must face increasing pressure this Thursday, November 7, to leave power without delay after the breakup of his fragile government coalition the day before.

This planned end of the government comes at the worst time for Germany, grappling with a serious industrial crisis, and for Europe which is worried about the repercussions for its trade and security of the election of Donald Trump in the United States. United.

Between paralysis, uncertainty over next year’s budget and the wait for early legislative elections, HuffPost takes stock of the serious political crisis which is shaking Europe’s largest economy.

• How did the crisis arise?

Olaf Scholz only counts the ecologists as partners following the resignation of three of the four liberal ministers on Wednesday evening due to a deep disagreement on budgetary and economic policy. As a result, he lost his majority in Parliament.

On Wednesday evening, he explained that he still wanted to try to pass some consensus texts in Parliament by 2025. “We will put to the vote all bills that cannot be postponed”he declared. But for this he needs to find support on a case-by-case basis in the Bundestag, the German chamber of deputies.

• An impossible majority

Without the liberals of the FDP, the Scholz government is missing 91 deputies. With the 207 social democratic parliamentarians and the 117 environmentalists, he only has 324 votes. However, to pass legislative texts, it needs 367. A red-green coalition will not be able to pass laws alone.

And if the conservatives refuse any support, the other options appear unrealistic. The far-right AfD party has also ruled out supporting a red-green government in principle. The radical left, Die Linke, and the few members of the left-wing populist party BSW have too few representatives.

• The 2025 budget in question

This crisis creates great uncertainty around the 2025 federal budget project, the preparation of which is at the origin of the rupture between the liberals and the left within the government coalition. If it cannot be adopted due to lack of a majority in Parliament, provisional management would apply from January.

Initially, only expenses necessary for the functioning of administrations and imposed by law would be maintained. In practice, however, the Ministry of Finance could authorize ministries to use each month a percentage of the appropriations from the draft budget which has not yet been adopted.

• A dissolution, but when?

In the German parliamentary system, established after the trauma of National Socialist totalitarianism, the Bundestag plays a central role by electing the chancellor, traditionally from the party that came first in the legislative elections.

Olaf Scholz said he wanted to submit to a vote of confidence by MPs on January 15. If he loses it, an almost inevitable option from now on, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag, with new elections having to take place no later than 60 days later. This could then be the case “by the end of March at the latest”indicated Olaf Scholz, six months before the date initially planned. Will the chancellor hold out until this date? Nothing is less certain.

• Friedrich Merz time?

Conservative rival of Olaf Scholz, German opposition leader Friedrich Merz is now favorite to win the chancellorship, promising a shift to the right on immigration and a return to traditional values.

At almost 69 years old, this eternal hope of the conservatives long sidelined by Angela Merkel has already launched her electoral campaign with a view to early legislative elections which now seem inevitable. And he hopes that they will take place as soon as possible.

This Thursday, he urged Olaf Scholz to ask the question of confidence in Parliament next week. “We simply cannot afford to have a government without a majority for several months”pleaded the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

• The German president calls for “responsibility”

For his part, the German president urged the country’s political leaders this Thursday to “the reason” and to “responsibility” after the breakup of the government coalition. “Our country needs stable majorities and effective government”added Frank-Walter Steinmeier during a speech.

He will be responsible for dissolving the Bundestag if the government loses the question of confidence that it intends to submit to deputies. “I am ready to make this decision” when it will be submitted to him according to the rules provided for by the national constitution, indicated the German president.

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