What was predicted in Germany has therefore happened: the coalition gathered around Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just imploded after the dismissal of the liberal finance minister, leading the country towards early elections. The government coalition had been eroding for months, with the three partners increasingly displaying their differences in public.
Election every four years, normally
At the federal level, legislative elections normally take place every four years. The next election of deputies of the Bundestag, the German Parliament, was scheduled for next year, in September.
But when the government loses its majority, early elections are necessary to restore political stability.
In Germany, early elections are very rare. They are regulated by the Constitution which only authorizes the dissolution of the Bundestag in two cases:
Or if no absolute parliamentary majority emerges after the elections. The German president, who mainly occupies a symbolic function, can then decide to dissolve Parliament. This has never happened in the history of the Federal Republic.
In the second case, the chancellor asks the Bundestag for a vote of confidence. If he does not obtain it, it is again the president who can dissolve Parliament on the proposal of the chancellor.
After the dissolution of the Bundestag, new elections must take place within 60 days.
Three early elections in history
The country has actually only had three early elections in its history:
Before reunification, in 1972, West German Chancellor Willy Brandt asked for a vote of confidence while his policy of détente towards the Soviet Union, the GDR and other Eastern countries created strong differences domestically, with deputies slamming the door of the majority.
However, this vote of confidence is also contested, since the chancellor seeks to lose it, which is not in the spirit of the Constitution, hoping in the end to consolidate his power following early elections.
And that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Willy Brandt is re-elected, his SPD party will obtain its best result with 45.8% of the vote and the participation rate of 91% is the highest in the history of Bundestag elections to date.
Gerhard Schröder’s miscalculation
In 1983, the second early legislative elections were called by Christian Democratic Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who had come to power the year before after a vote of no confidence against his predecessor Helmut Schmidt.
But Helmut Kohl wants to take control through the front door. He calls a vote of confidence which he intentionally loses and is confirmed in his functions by early legislative elections.
“I have opened the way for new elections in order to stabilize the government and obtain a clear majority in the Bundestag,” declared the chancellor at the time.
The arrival of Angela Merkel
Finally, we arrive in 2005. Gerhard Schröder’s SPD loses a series of regional elections and the confidence of the majority deputies is eroding, in particular because of the chancellor’s controversial social and labor market reforms.
Here again, he deliberately loses a vote of confidence, leading to early elections.
The difference is that Gerhard Schröder makes a calculation error. Instead of establishing his legitimacy, he narrowly lost the legislative elections to the conservatives, propelling Angela Merkel to the post of chancellor, which she would not relinquish for 16 years.
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