Donald Trump and Africa: What does his victory mean?

As it became clear that Donald Trump had clinched the United States presidency for a second time, leaders across Africa began tweeting their congratulations.

“Zimbabwe is ready to work with you,” Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa wrote, hoping for a diplomatic reset, while Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu expressed hope that Mr. Trump’s second term would bring “economic partnerships and mutual development between Africa and the United States”.

But will Trump 2.0 be good for the continent? During his first term in the White House, critics accused him of ignoring Africa, cutting some funding, limiting immigration and calling some of its nations “shithole countries.”

However, he also implemented programs aimed at increasing investment in Africa, programs which remain operational three years after his departure.

But how could he approach Africa in this new climate?

The outgoing Joe Biden administration “tried to give the impression that Africa was an important and valued partner,” Gyude Moore, a member of the Center for Global Development and former Liberian minister, told BBC W.

Mr. Moore said Mr. Biden has failed to translate this enthusiasm into substantive agreements and partnerships, but that does not mean his Africa strategy has been unsuccessful.

For example, the United States has been praised for its investment in the Lobito Corridor, a rail line through Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, which will be used to transport critical raw materials.

In 2023, the United States reported investing more than $22 billion since Mr. Biden took office.

But some fear that Donald Trump will reverse these investments and these exchanges. The future president has a more protectionist and insular view than Mr Biden – one of the slogans of his first term was “America first”.

A major concern is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has allowed eligible African countries to export some of their products to the United States without paying taxes since 2000.

During his previous administration, Mr. Trump said the program would not be renewed when it expires in 2025.

During his 2024 campaign, he pledged to implement a universal 10% tariff on all goods manufactured abroad. This measure would make imported products more expensive, and African exporters would therefore be likely to sell fewer of their products in the large American market.

Many commentators in South Africa – one of the largest exporters under the Agoa agreement – have predicted that reducing Agoa could have a significant impact on the economy.

However, the US think tank Brookings Institution predicted that South Africa’s GDP would decline by “only 0.06%”. This is partly because many products South Africa exports to the United States, such as minerals and metals, do not benefit from Agoa.

Although Mr. Trump is not very supportive of Agoa, he acknowledged that if the United States wants to counter China’s growing economic influence in Africa, it must maintain a certain level of partnership.

In 2018, the Trump administration unveiled Prosper Africa – an initiative that helps U.S. companies looking to invest in Africa – and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which funds development projects in Africa and around the world. Mr Biden kept both entities operating after taking office and the DFC claims to have invested more than $10bn (£8bn) in Africa to date.

Given that China remains a major force in Africa and that Trump introduced these policies himself, it is likely that he will think twice before removing them.

Africa receives most of its aid from the United States, who reported giving nearly $3.7 billion during this financial year.

But Mr. Trump’s last administration repeatedly proposed cutting foreign aid around the world, according to reports. Congress – where foreign aid enjoys bipartisan support – has rejected these cuts.

Had these cuts been implemented, “traditional U.S. policies on health care, democracy promotion, and security assistance to Africa would have been eviscerated,” said the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think tank.

The aid cut could, however, be less contested if Republicans obtain a significant majority in Congress following Tuesday’s elections. The party has already won the Senate – the upper house of Congress – and currently has a majority in the lower house – the House of Representatives.

Some also fear that Mr. Trump will end Pepfar, a long-standing US initiative that has injected considerable sums of money into the fight against HIV in Africa.

Last year, Republican lawmakers strongly opposed Pepfar, alleging the program incentivized abortion services. The program received a short extension until March next year, but Mr Trump, known for his hostility to abortion, could end this reprieve.

Trump’s views on illegal immigration are clear – during his 2024 campaign, he promised to deport a million people who do not have the legal permission to be in the United States.

This concerns Africa: In 2022, approximately 13,000 African migrants were registered at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data. By 2023, this figure had quadrupled to reach 58,000. Some of these would-be immigrants say they fled war, persecution and poverty.

It would not be the first time that he implemented a spectacular anti-immigration policy. During his first term, Mr. Trump introduced measures to reduce immigration from several African countries, including Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan and Tanzania.

Kenyan news site Taifo Leo reported that the East African country’s migrants, who number around 160,000, fear discrimination under Trump’s presidency.

While Mr. Trump was out of office, Russia increased its presence in Africa.

In particular, it has supplied troops and weapons to countries hit by jihadist militants, such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

Russia’s establishment has alarmed the United States, which is historical rivals.

Will Mr. Trump offer support to African countries to try to fend off Russia?

“Even though the US national security architecture perceives Russia as a threat, Mr Trump did not personally act as if he perceived Russia as a threat,” Mr Moore told the BBC.

Some believe Mr. Trump has a closer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin than he lets on.

However, Mr. Trump has intervened in the past to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram, an Islamist militant group that has plagued the West African country for 15 years.

“During the mandate of [l’ancien président Barack] Obama, Nigerian-Americans advocated tirelessly on his behalf, but he refused Nigeria’s requests for arms. When our communities in northern Nigeria were attacked by Boko Haram, it was Trump who finally approved the purchase of Tucano jets, which allowed us to strengthen our defenses,” former lawmaker Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma told the Nigerian media Vanguard.

There is also the question of the civil war in Sudan, which has raged for 18 months and has killed tens of thousands of people.

“Trump is very transactional,” Mr. Moore said. “I really doubt that the Trump administration cares more about what’s happening in Sudan than, say, the Biden administration.

But ultimately, there’s no way to be completely sure what Trump will set his sights on once he’s in office.

As Mr. Moore says: “Trump is very unorthodox in the way he does things. So you have to be quite open to new things, not necessarily to the right thing, but to new things.”