What if there was a perfect tie between Trump and Harris?

What if Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each failed to reach the necessary majority of voters to win the White House? This hypothesis, which will make Americans already very worried tear their hair out or seize with anxiety, is theoretically possible.

According to the Constitution, it would then be up to Congress to nominate the 47th President of the United States. More precisely, in the newly elected House of Representatives, the Senate finds itself responsible for appointing the future vice-president.

This rare scenario would occur if the two candidates arrive tied on Tuesday in number of electors, 269 to 269. Several voting scenarios result in this perfect sharing of the electoral college, which has 538 members who must subsequently designate the president.

For example, if the Democrat emerges victorious in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Republican wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and a left-leaning district in Nebraska.

Never in modern American history has this happened.

We must go back to the presidential election of 1800, which pitted Thomas Jefferson (Republican-Democratic Party) against John Adams (Federalist Party), to find equality in the number of electors.

Notably, this tie did not concern Adams but the two Democratic-Republican candidates, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, who each obtained 73 votes. The election was therefore declared invalid and the House of Representatives had to decide between them, finally electing Jefferson after… 36 rounds of voting.

This complex situation led to the adoption in 1804 of the 12th Amendment to the United States Constitution, which supplements Article 2 and details the procedure in the event of a lack of majority in the electoral college.

Concretely, how would this vote take place in the House on January 6, 2025?

“Every state, regardless of population, has the right to vote,” says the Congressional Research Service.

In other words, the election is not done by each representative, but by majority delegation in each state: small Idaho (Republican) has one vote with its two representatives, just like immense California (Democratic) despite its 52 elected officials.

The American federation has 50 states, the new majority to be achieved would therefore be 26 votes. And the Republicans are favored to retain this majority they currently hold.

It is easy to imagine how such a historic process would electrify a country already on edge, where millions of inhabitants are convinced that the ultra-close vote is already marred by irregularities.