Allan Lichtman, a historian renowned for his precise predictions of American presidential elections for 40 years, has just reaffirmed his prediction for the 2024 election. This announcement comes just before the opening of the polling stations.
His method is (almost) impeccable. Since 1984, historian Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the name of the winner of the presidential elections in the United States. For 2024, he still estimates that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious. Here’s how his analysis works.
An infallible method since 1984
Since he began predicting the results of the American presidential elections in 1984, Allan Lichtman has become a reference in political predictions. Its ability to identify the winner has been confirmed over the years, with one exception: the 2000 election, where George W. Bush finally beat Al Gore after a long legal battle, notably because of irregularities in Florida. .
Despite this gap, Lichtman’s reputation remains solid, because his prediction method was convincing.
The “thirteen keys” system
To establish his forecasts, Allan Lichtman relies on a unique system, developed in the 1980s with the help of a mathematician. This model is based on thirteen “keys” which cover different aspects of the political and economic situation in the country. According to him, the candidate of the ruling party – this year, Kamala Harris for the Democrats – must obtain at least eight of these thirteen keys to win.
On the other hand, the opponent, here Donald Trump for the Republican Party, must obtain the majority of the keys to reverse the trend. Each key can only belong to one of the candidates, making the system binary and precise.
A prediction maintained until the end
In mid-September, Allan Lichtman predicted that Kamala Harris would win the November 5 election, but left open the possibility of a last-minute adjustment, as he did in 2016.
At the time, he had changed his forecast the day before the election, correctly predicting Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton despite an initial forecast in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Two days before the election, Allan Lichtman confirmed his initial prediction: he still believes that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious. This forecast should offer some comfort to Democrats, especially as the latest polls show Donald Trump making progress.
For supporters of Kamala Harris, the assurance of a favorable prognosis could well galvanize the final days of the campaign.
lichtmann US elections 2024 Harris Trump
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