From 2025, Europe will impose environmental fines stricter on car manufacturers for each thermal vehicle sold exceeding the CO₂ emission thresholds. These sanctions aim to encourage the transition towards electric and hybrid vehiclesmore respectful of the environment. European authorities hope that by making thermal vehicles more expensive to produce, manufacturers will invest more in electric vehicles, thus meeting the continent's climate objectives.
The consequences of these new fines will not be long in coming. To avoid heavy sanctions, manufacturers will not only have to intensify production of their electric ranges but also encourage buyers to choose a zero-emission vehicle. In parallel, financial incentives and tax reductionss will also be deployed to make electricity more accessible to consumers.
With an unbreakable engine, consumption of 5.1 l/100 km and a good luggage compartment, there are few cheap cars like this left.
Electric vehicles, an alternative encouraged by regulations
In response to these measures, electric vehicles are becoming a financially advantageous alternative for consumers. By choosing an electric model, buyers will benefit not only from savings on fuel and maintenance, but also from tax advantages and easier access to city centers in several major European metropolises. Europe thus intends to reduce urban pollution by limiting access to thermal vehicles and promoting electric vehicles.
China, for its part, is taking a similar approach, with massive incentives to boost the electric vehicle market. However, Europe stands out with a strategy of direct economic sanctions for manufacturers in the event of non-compliance with environmental standards, which could accelerate the transition in a shorter period of time. This cross dynamic between Europe and China strongly influences global markets and forces manufacturers to accelerate their electric shift.
Low emission zones are expanding
At the same time, 2025 will mark the significant expansion of Low Emission Zones (LEZ) in France. More than 40 towns with more than 150,000 inhabitants must have these restrictive zones in place.s. The most polluting vehicles, in particular Crit'Air 3, 4 and 5 will be prohibited from accessing these areas under penalty of substantial fines. This is a radical change for millions of motorists. “Many owners of thermal vehicles will find themselves unable to access city centers without risking a fine of 68 euros, which could even increase to 180 euros in the event of a repeat offense.
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Parking becomes a major lever
French municipalities are also planning new parking scales differentiated according to the type of motorization. Paris has already announced that in 2025, parking for thermal vehicles could cost up to three times more than for electric vehicles. Other large cities are preparing to follow this model.
An accumulation of financial constraints
The addition of these different measures will create significant financial pressure on owners of thermal vehicles:
- Increase in purchase price due to penalties
- Potential fines in ZFE
- More expensive parking
- Fuel taxes on the rise
“We estimate that an urban motorist in a thermal vehicle could face an additional annual cost of 2000 to 3000 euros compared to a driver of an electric vehicle”.
An already visible impact on purchasing intentions
Initial studies show that these future constraints are already influencing purchasing decisions. According to an OpinionWay survey carried out in October 2023, 68% of French people considering purchasing a vehicle by 2025 now favor electric vehicles, compared to 45% a year ago.
Manufacturers are anticipating this development by accelerating their transition. Renault has already announced that 70% of its range will be electrified by 2025. Peugeot is even aiming for 85% of its sales to be electric on the French market by this deadline.
This acceleration nevertheless raises the question of infrastructure. “We will need to increase the number of charging stations fivefold by 2025 to support this transition,” warns Thomas Martin, director of the Electric Infrastructure Association. The government has promised an acceleration plan, with a target of 400,000 public charging points by the end of 2025.
To facilitate this transition, the government is maintaining substantial aid:
- Ecological bonus maintained at €5,000
- Reinforced conversion bonuses
- New regional aid
- Financing facilities for the installation of private terminals
2025 therefore promises to be a pivotal year for the automobile industry in France. The combination of fines, restrictions and additional costs for thermal vehicles, combined with incentives for electric vehicles, should create a jaws effect favorable to the electrification of the vehicle fleet. Experts predict that the market share of electric vehicles could reach 40% of new sales that year, compared to around 17% currently.
The message is clear : the future of the automobile in France will be electric, and 2025 will probably mark the tipping point of this revolution.
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