In the state which largely voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020, the Democratic candidate would lead the way, with a lead of 3 points, thanks to the vote of women over 65, and without a clear political affiliation, according to a research institute. survey recognized as extremely reliable.
This is one more poll, in the middle of the tide which is flooding the American media and which all confirm an extremely close vote on Tuesday, November 5. This is a poll in Iowa, a state which is not, or has not been for several elections, a swing state, those states which swing to one side or the other of the political spectrum in an election to the other and which will determine the final result. But it is a particularly scrutinized poll. Firstly because it comes from J. Ann Selzer, founder of the polling institute Selzer & Co, considered extremely reliable. She had, in the last two elections, correctly predicted the results. Then because Iowa has, for two presidential elections, been firmly anchored in red, the color of the Republicans. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump came in well ahead, with a lead of around 10 points. This state is therefore solidly labeled “Republican” and did not appear in the campaign plan of either candidate. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has set foot there since last summer.
However, the results of the poll, published three days before the elections, give Kamala Harris in the lead in Iowa, with a lead of 3 points. According to the survey, published in the local daily Des Moines Register, the vice-president would come in front of the former president, with 47% of the votes against 44%. The previous poll, in mid-September, gave Trump a 4-point lead, and that of June, an 18-point lead against the one who was still the Democratic candidate, President Joe Biden.
“There remains a little fragility about what could well happen on Tuesday”
This latest survey was carried out between October 28 and 31, on a sample of 808 voters who have already voted or are absolutely sure to vote. The results remain within a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, but Selzer & Co enjoys, nationally, an impeccable reputation for the solidity of its results. “You will note that neither candidate obtains more than 50% of the votes, so there remains a little fragility about what could well happen on Tuesday,” commented J. Ann Selzer on the BBC.
The other surprise of this poll, beyond the unexpected lead granted to Kamala Harris, is the strength of the vote of women aged over 65 and without specific political affiliation in favor of the vice-president. The latter chose Kamala Harris by 57% against 29% for Donald Trump. In September, she led in this category by only 5 points. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors to explain these results,” explained J. Ann Selzer.
The last time Iowa voted for a Democratic president was in 2012. Barack Obama won the vote in this state by a very small margin. “It’s hard for anyone to say they saw it coming.” this reversal of trend, commented J. Ann Selzer about her poll in the Des Moines Register. Kamala Harris is “clearly in the lead”.
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