American presidential election: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, what do the polls say on D-3?

Who, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, will be the next tenant of the White House? Very clever who could say that when the very latest polls, no more than the previous ones, fail to identify a clear favorite between the two candidates for the presidency of the United States. If 43 of the 50 American states lean quite clearly to one side or another, the suspense remains in the 7 “swing states” (new window)who regularly alternate between Republicans and Democrats depending on the elections.

It is precisely in these states that it is impossible for pollsters to comment. Among them, Pennsylvania and its 19 major voters attract all the attention. The latest poll for ABC News gives a tiny advantage to Donald Trump with 47.9% voting intentions, compared to 47.7% for Kamala Harris. A lead as thick as a sheet of cigarette paper which prevents any relevant projection in this key state which could swing the election.

Arizona, the least indecisive of the “swing states”?

Same trend in Nevada, where the New York billionaire and the former vice-president of Joe Biden are, according to the same poll, at less than 0.5% of voting intentions (47.7% for Trump, 47.3% for Harris).

It is barely less undecided in Wisconsin (48.2% – 47.4%) and Michigan (48% – 47%), which would lean very slightly towards the Democratic candidate. As for the states of North Carolina (48.4% – 47.1%), Georgia (48.6% – 47.1%) and a little more Arizona (48.8% – 46.7% ), the poll for ABC News gives the Republican camp in the lead, but with a lead still contained within this famous margin of error which makes the result so unpredictable.

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The ballot takes place by indirect universal suffrage. Americans vote for 538 electors, who then choose the president. To be elected, the candidate must obtain the votes of 270 electors. Unlike the French system, the one who obtains the greatest number of votes nationally is not guaranteed to win the election.

In 2016, Donald Trump was elected by obtaining around 3 million votes less than his rival Hillary Clinton, a gap of 2% against him nationally (46.09% – 48.18%). It would be barely more than 1% three days before the verdict (48% for Harris, 46.8% for Trump), according to the latest poll. One more element which raises the specter of the closest American presidential election since the duel between George Bush and Al Gore in 2001. Perhaps, to date, the only certainty of this election.