That’s it, after a long campaign with unpredictable reversals and inflammatory statements, millions of people will be on the lookout Tuesday evening waiting to know the outcome of the presidential election. What should you know before you sit down in front of your screen? Duty asked two experts in American politics to sketch how the evening of Tuesday, November 5, 2024 would unfold.
1- Can we get an idea of the results even before the counting begins?
The polls are so close at the time these lines are written that, as far as the outcome of the election is concerned, “it’s really heads or tails”, immediately announces Frédérick Gagnon, director of the Observatory on United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
According to national data, there is less than a point difference between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. The margin is sometimes even thinner in key states. The race has even tightened in recent weeks, he recalls, while Mme Harris “lost a bit of momentum.”
Unless there are significant movements in the polls during the weekend, “we will start the evening not knowing at all where we are going.”
For data buffs, Frédérick Gagnon suggests consulting sites with a solid reputation, such as that of statistics guru Nate Silver, or RealClearPolitics, which present national polling averages as well as for pivotal states. The FiveThirtyEight site also has a final forecast model.
Political scientist Matthew Lebo plans to follow the polls that will be carried out at the exit of the polls. “If, for example, Harris has a better result than [Joe] Biden among certain categories of voters, such as white women and black or Latino voters, that could be a good sign for Democrats. »
However, these polls generally arrive quite late in the day, notes this visiting professor at McGill University, normally attached to the Department of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario.
2- What should we monitor as a priority?
Don’t waste too much time with the 43 states whose results we pretty much already know, says Mr. Lebo. Instead, we should keep an eye on the seven key states with uncertain results: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Beware of early inclinations: “The votes are never counted everywhere at the same time,” he points out.
In Virginia, for example, votes from rural counties are counted first. The Republicans could thus appear early in the evening. It is then the ballot boxes from the areas further north of the state which are counted, and then the “blue vote”, in the suburbs of the capital Washington, could stand out more.
It’s the same scenario for Pennsylvania, on which all eyes will be on, as the state seems ready to swing to one side or the other.
The 2020 point of comparison is also very important to keep in mind (or on screen): “If Kamala Harris has, for example, a 2% lead in North Carolina over Joe Biden, that could also be a positive signal for his campaign,” explains Matthew Lebo.
Frédérick Gagnon has clearly established his “game plan” for the evening: from 7 p.m., the results from Georgia will begin to come in. At 7:30 p.m., polling stations in North Carolina will close. At 8 p.m., it will be Pennsylvania and Michigan. Then, at 9 p.m., Wisconsin and Arizona, and finally, at 10 p.m., Nevada.
“It’s really my watch streak,” he says, in addition to having a long list of specific counties to watch in these seven key states.
3- Are we going to spend the night up? Or the whole week?
“I don’t expect to really sleep, but that’s your choice,” Matthew Lebo says with a laugh when asked. It remains possible that one or other of the candidates obtains a better score than what the polls suggest: each exercise includes a margin of error, he recalls. The result would then be quickly known.
Frédérick Gagnon also recalls the experience of 2016, when it became obvious, around 10:30 p.m., that the vote was going in the direction of Donald Trump. “ [Hillary] Clinton couldn’t get enough votes where there were still votes to be counted, it was mathematical. »
However, he also already anticipates that the night will be short, or even non-existent for his part, and that the sleep deficit could continue to accumulate for several days, or even the whole week. “If we look at the recent elections in 2020, they seemed less close than this year, but we knew the identity of the winner just the following Saturday,” he recalls.
That was partly because of media caution, he notes, but also because the amount of mail-in votes was unprecedented. There are 51 different election systems for 50 states and the District of Columbia. However, many have since passed laws to allow those votes to be processed before election night. These are not “counts strictly speaking”, but a form of “pre-filtering”, describes this expert, to ensure that the ballots are in order, by checking for example that they are signed.
Georgia, a pivotal state, will notably count this type of postal vote before the polls close. This is less obvious for Pennsylvania, where we can expect a count to take a few days, especially if the result is close.
4- Could a candidate declare himself the winner early in the evening?
“It is certain that, if one of the two has a chance of doing it, it is Trump,” says Mr. Gagnon straight away. “Regardless of the trends, around 10 p.m. or 11 p.m., we can predict that he will make a public outing and that he will at least try to maintain a certain ambiguity, even more so if the trends are not clear . »
The number of mail-in votes will be fewer this year than in 2020, and they will likely come more from both camps. The fact remains that more Democrats than Republicans use this method. “It can create what we call the mirage of Republican victory,” explains this expert.
The results of the voting in the offices are starting to come out more quickly, and it is more Republican, he continues. The votes which have not yet been counted, those which will wait until the next day or even the day after for example, will be more democratic. “That’s what happened in 2020. Trump was leading in Georgia and Pennsylvania when we went to bed. The next day, we started counting the postal votes and that’s when Trump started saying that they had “found” boxes of votes and that they were creating false votes,” relates Mr. Gagnon.
“I expect him to say: ‘I won, it’s over’ or: ‘They are stealing the election’,” said Matthew Lebo. He too notes that it is this change in the trend in the two key states that has “fueled his stories of fraud”. “I really can’t imagine him saying he lost or congratulating his opponent,” he finishes.
5- Will the courts get involved?
The two men agree on this: it is very likely that dozens of lawsuits will be filed in court. “In 2020, there were around 60 legal actions. As soon as Trump didn’t like the results somewhere, he launched a lawsuit,” says Matthew Lebo.
It is very possible that Kamala Harris will also file lawsuits in places where the Democratic camp doubts the objectivity of the officials who organize the actual vote.
One of these actions could make its way to the Supreme Court if the parties appeal repeatedly, for example. The composition of the Supreme Court currently leans to the right, notably with the three judges appointed by Donald Trump during his mandate. “That’s what’s a little scary,” Mr. Lebo said.
The thinner the gap between the two parties, the more legal actions will be numerous, Mr. Gagnon also indicates. Challenges to election procedures are already before courts in several states, and Mr. Trump has told his troops to seek “every means of not certifying votes against him.” “American democracy remains fragile and there is a scenario where Trump could try to win the election after the fact even if he lost,” he says.
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