A few days before the American presidential election, the visit to Jerusalem by emissaries Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk aims in particular to find a solution to more than a month of war between Israel and the Lebanese Islamist movement, supported by Iran.
The night was marked by new bombings on the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, regularly targeted in recent weeks by the Israeli army which had launched a call to evacuate several sectors.
The Lebanese National Agency (ANI) reported at least 10 strikes. According to images broadcast by AFPTV, they caused strong explosions and thick plumes of smoke then rose from the area.
«The raids caused massive destruction in the targeted areas and dozens of buildings were razed», reported ANI, also reporting the outbreak of fires.
On Thursday, six rescue workers affiliated with Hezbollah and its ally Amal were killed in Israeli raids in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanese authorities. Bombings particularly targeted the surroundings of Tire, in the south, and Baalbeck, in the east.
American plan
Israel says it wants to neutralize Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to allow the return of some 60,000 inhabitants of the north of its territory displaced by incessant rocket fire since the start of the war in Gaza.
In northern Israel on Thursday, rocket fire from Lebanon left seven people dead, according to local authorities, including four foreign agricultural workers in Metoula. Thailand then reported the death of four nationals in this border town.
According to Israeli media citing government sources, the plan prepared by American envoys provides for a withdrawal of Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, bordering northern Israel, as well as the withdrawal of the Israeli army from this region, control of which would return to the Lebanese army and the UN peacekeepers.
Lebanon would have the responsibility to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and Israel would retain its right to defend itself in accordance with international law, according to this document.
Read also: In Lebanon, UNIFIL warns of “catastrophic” regional conflict
Israeli officials said the soldiers, engaged in a ground offensive in southern Lebanon since September 30, would not withdraw until an agreement that would meet Israel’s security demands.
Total dismantling
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who received the American envoys on Thursday, assured “appreciate» support from Washington, while refusing to give in to pressure from its ally.
«Terrorist armies will no longer be at our borders. Hamas will no longer control Gaza and Hezbollah will not establish itself on our northern border in positions to invade» Israel, he insisted.
But according to Israeli media, a ceasefire seems increasingly likely, after the Israeli chief of staff, General Herzi Halevi, reported the “total dismantling of the chain of command» you Hezbollah.
On Wednesday, the new leader of Hezbollah, Naïm Qassem, said he was ready for a ceasefire.sous conditions”, without specifying which ones.
The visit of the American emissaries also aims, according to Washington, to obtain progress towards an end to the conflict in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army has mainly concentrated its offensive in the north since October 6, seven Airstrikes targeted Jabalia, Beit Lahia and Gaza City on Thursday, according to witnesses.
Tehran’s strike forces weakened
Tehran downplays, Israel evokes a new “balance of power“. Israel’s recent strikes on Iran have hit several military installations and, according to analysts, further weakened the Islamic Republic’s strike force, and therefore its deterrence capacity.
Last Saturday, Israel carried out airstrikes in response to the October 1 Iranian missile attack. An attack itself carried out in retaliation for the assassination of leaders of Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, Islamist movements supported by Tehran.
Even if Iran only admits “limited damage“, this umpteenth avatar of bilateral escalation is significant, for the Western analysts consulted by theAFP: the raids targeted both Iran’s air defenses and its ability to strike.
«Israel has used some 100 fighter jets, and possibly drone systems», Says the American Hudson Institute. “Attacking in three waves, Israeli armed forces targeted missile production capabilities and air defense architecture» Iranians.
Of the four solid fuel production sites used by Iranian rockets and missiles, three were hit in Sharhoud, Khojir (East) and Parchin (near Tehran), according to Fabian Hinz, expert from the International Institute for Studies. (IISS).
Israel fromdeliberately targeted a manufacturing process bottleneck that will have significant consequences for missile production», he explains to theAFP.
The strikes also destroyed Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems, as well as long-range radars.
«US and Israeli officials confirmed that the strikes had rendered the S-300s inoperable and damaged radar sites “billed as capable of detecting ballistic missiles and stealth aircraft.”», assures the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington.
Race against time
Israel has also previously struck pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria, while continuing its offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
The latter had long-range missiles which made it possible to defend its ally’s nuclear installations. But his abilities have declined. “The movement deterred Israel and that is no longer the case», tranche Fabian Hinz.
Israel can now, more easily than before, strike Iranian energy or military installations. And the two countries, with powerful military industries, are condemned to one-upmanship.
«There is a race against time between Iran, which must produce a maximum of sufficiently precise and effective ballistic missiles, and Israel which must produce or acquire from the United States a maximum of anti-missile missiles.», summarizes for theAFP Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES). “The first person to run out of ammunition will find themselves in a very vulnerable situation.».
The standoff therefore takes on a global dimension. Iran is waiting for the Sukhoi Su-35 fighters promised by Russia 18 months ago and must resupply the S-300, or even their more advanced version S-400.
Par Le360 (with AFP)
01/11/2024 at 06:47 a.m.
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