The hypothesis of the resignation of Staffan de Mistura, United Nations special envoy for the Sahara, raises questions about the future of UN mediation in this Sahara issue. Since his appointment in 2021, de Mistura has failed to achieve a major breakthrough in negotiations between Morocco and the Algerian-backed Polisario. His latest proposal, which evokes a possible partition of the Sahara territory, has sparked a lively controversy and could well mark a turning point in the failure of his mission.
Speaking to the UN Security Council, Staffan de Mistura suggested he plans to leave office by April 2025 unless significant progress is made in the talks. This statement, largely motivated by the lack of notable progress in the political process, was seen by many as an implicit admission of the impossibility of finding a short-term solution. “If by April 2025, I have not reported significant progress, it is likely that questions will be raised regarding the role and relevance of the UN mission,” he was quoted as saying, according to leaks reported by the Spanish newspaper El Confidencial.
One of the special envoy’s most controversial proposals concerns the partition of the Sahara, an idea inspired by the plan of James Baker, his predecessor, who envisaged the creation of an independent state on a third of the territory in the south, while that the rest would be integrated into Morocco. This plan, according to de Mistura, could represent a form of compromise between the Polisario Front’s demands for independence and the Moroccan Autonomy Plan. However, this suggestion has been largely rejected by Morocco, which remains uncompromising on the territory’s full sovereignty as part of its autonomy bid.
The partition proposal, although it has resurfaced, appears to be moving away from the trajectory followed by the international community in recent years. Morocco’s Autonomy Plan, presented in 2007, received the support of influential actors such as France and Spain, who see this initiative as a realistic and pragmatic solution to the conflict. However, de Mistura insisted that Morocco must further clarify the details of this proposal, stressing that even its supporters do not fully understand its content, which suggests that their support is based more on political interests than on a careful evaluation of the offer.
Read also: Did De Mistura really propose the partition of the Sahara?
Additionally, the UN envoy mentioned several international examples of successful self-governance regimes, such as in Scotland, Greenland and South Tyrol. However, he stressed that the autonomy proposed by Morocco remains much lower than that practiced in these regions, particularly with regard to the powers devolved to local authorities.
Faced with these criticisms, Morocco invariably reaffirms that its Autonomy Plan constitutes the only acceptable basis for negotiation. For several years, Rabat has benefited from growing diplomatic support for this initiative, particularly from the United States, which, under the Trump administration, recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. This recognition strengthened the kingdom’s position on the international scene.
Questioning the role of MINURSO
As the UN mission in the Sahara (MINURSO) soon approaches its 33rd anniversary, its role seems increasingly limited to monitoring a fragile ceasefire, with no real prospect of implementing a self-determination referendum, initially planned when it was created in 1991. The blockage of negotiations, aggravated by the emergence of new geopolitical conflicts of interest in the region, makes any hope of an imminent resolution difficult.
Thus, the possibility that Staffan de Mistura will resign reveals the impasse in which the peace process currently finds itself. If no substantial progress is obtained by April 2025, his resignation could mark the end of an era, and more broadly, raise questions about the relevance of continued UN involvement in this conflict. Many voices, both in Morocco and internationally, are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of the current negotiating framework, as regional dynamics evolve.
In a context where international support for the Moroccan Autonomy Plan seems to be increasing, particularly in Europe, the prospect of seeing the United Nations withdraw from the file only reinforces the idea that this conflict is on the way to becoming an issue exclusively regional. The apparent failure of UN mediation, illustrated by the probable resignation of de Mistura, could encourage regional actors to seek new diplomatic avenues, or to face the reality of a frozen conflict, where political solutions are dwindling .
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