where is the Israeli ground offensive, more than two weeks after its launch?

Two weeks after crossing the border, the Israeli army continues its ground operations in southern Lebanon. On October 1, IDF soldiers entered Lebanese territory, opening a breach in the “blue line” controlled by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). In support of these ground operations, air raids continue: on Wednesday October 16, the Israeli army announced that it had struck several towns in southern Lebanon, as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said be opposed to any ceasefire.

The aerial bombardments, which left more than 1,300 dead, and the ground offensives have the same purpose for the army: to destroy Hezbollah targets, including “terrorist infrastructure, command centers and weapons storage facilities”. Satellite images, videos published on social networks or statements from the various actors make it possible to understand the scope of this offensive and to outline its contours. This is the work carried out by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a research center based in the United States whose members closely follow developments in combat on the ground.

According to this census, the Israeli army has made advances in six main locations in this part of southern Lebanon, around thirty kilometers wide. Breakthroughs one to two kilometers deep, some in the immediate vicinity of UNIFIL positions. They give rise to violent clashes with Hezbollah. Further north, Israel continues to call on certain Lebanese villages to evacuate, often preceding aerial bombardments. At the same time, on the Israeli side, the IDF has emptied a strip a few kilometers wide over the past year, transforming a large part into an exclusively military zone.

Several satellite images in recent days also demonstrate the development of forward Israeli operational bases in Lebanon. Near Maroun al-Ras, in the southeast of the country, the army raised embankments and around thirty vehicles were seen in images dated October 5. These positions, visible in the right image below, adjoin UNIFIL post 6-52. On October 6, the UN force said it “deeply worried” of these activities close to its positions. “It is unacceptable to compromise security” of its members, she judged on the social network

600 m northwest of these positions, circled in white dotted lines above, significant destruction was also noted. These are the remains of the “Garden of Iran”, which notably housed a statue of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. Satellite images captured in recent months as well as videos posted on social media show that this place was gradually destroyed by airstrikes, then razed by Israeli bulldozers. During their incursion on October 8, Israeli soldiers planted their flag on the ruins of this symbolic place.

A few kilometers further south, the IDF made another breakthrough across the line separating the two countries since 2000. Here again, images from October 5 demonstrate the passage of Israeli vehicles from the border (bottom right of the image below), towards the village of Yaroun. We can see new paths traced through fields, as well as destruction at the village level, circled in white dotted lines. It is precisely in this area that Hezbollah announced on October 4 that it had fired artillery shells and rockets against Israeli forces.

In the west of this border area, UNIFIL peacekeepers were caught in the crossfire of Israel and Hezbollah, particularly during these incursions. Two peacekeepers were injured after an Israeli armored vehicle fired at an observation tower at the UN force’s headquarters in Naqoura, on the Mediterranean coast, on October 10. On the night of Saturday October 12 to Sunday October 13, two Israeli tanks entered the Ramyah base, according to the Blue Helmets. In total, five UN soldiers were injured in one week. UNIFIL, which has 9,500 members, denounced “shocking violations” of Israel against its positions. Its manager, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, announced that he would keep his positions despite calls from Israel to leave the premises.

If satellite images allow us to see occasional advances by Israeli soldiers in Lebanon, “it is difficult to say whether [les soldats israéliens] will stay there.”admits Michel Goya, former colonel and military historian, interviewed by franceinfo. “For now, these appear to be small raids, aimed at destroying any Hezbollah infrastructure along the border.” Can the Israeli army advance north? “The idea could be to try to go to the Litani River, but we are not there”estimates the expert. At the same time, Israeli air raids continue in the area from the border to the Litani River, but also further north.

Since September 23, at least 1,356 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to an AFP count based on official figures. The bombings and the intensification of the conflict have also thrown 700,000 Lebanese and Syrians living in the south of the country onto the roads, according to UN figures. Nearly 70% of them are women and children.