Central Asian countries resume trade relations with Afghanistan

Banned from most diplomacy for its human rights violations, particularly against women, the Taliban regime has never received a prime minister since taking power in 2021. The visit of the head of the Uzbek government, Abdulla Oripov, to Kabul on August 18, where he was received by his Taliban counterpart Mawlavi Abdul Kabir, is therefore an event for this regime that no state recognizes. The two parties have concluded some thirty-five trade and investment agreement protocols worth $2.5 billion (€2.3 billion), with the ambition of increasing their turnover to $3 billion in the future.

This visit did not, however, cause any great surprise on the international scene, as relations between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan are old and have continued to develop after the Taliban came to power. For Tashkent, only the strengthening of commercial relations can lead to a “normalization” of trade with Afghanistan. A position which also allows Uzbekistan to be more recognized by the West, eager for structural changes in Afghanistan.

In exchange for carpets, fruit and soft drinks, Afghanistan, one of the poorest countries in the world, which is going through an unprecedented economic and social crisis, imports fuel, cereal products, construction materials and electricity from Central Asia, of which Uzbekistan is the main gateway.

“Tashkent prioritizes economic influence over formal diplomatic relations, according to expert Hamza Boltayev, director of the Center for Afghanistan and South Asia Studies at the Tashkent-based Institute of Advanced International Studies. The aim is to create an economic lever to push the country to favour regional discussions and a more comprehensive diplomacy. » But gradually bringing the Taliban to structural changes, both in domestic and foreign policy, through commercial dependence is a calculation that is struggling to bear fruit.

“Diplomatic slap”

Because tensions remain, especially over water sharing. Uzbekistan was unable to prevent the construction in spring 2023 of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Balkh province in northern Afghanistan, through which a fifth of the volume of the Amu Darya River is diverted. Downstream of this river, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are suffering from this drop in water levels, which seriously affects the irrigation of their agricultural land. “This channel was a real slap in the face to the efforts of Uzbek diplomats with the Talibansays Jennifer Murtazashvili, director of the Center for Governance and Markets and professor of international affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. It shows that the Taliban are putting their short-term interests ahead of long-term relationships with their neighbors.”

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