Mahamat Idriss Déby in Budapest as Hungary gains a foothold in the Sahel

While the West is retreating in the Sahel, where Russia is strengthening its grip, Viktor Orban’s unpredictable Hungary plans to send 200 soldiers to Chad soon, an unprecedented mission for the central European country. Symbolizing this rapprochement, Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Déby arrived in Budapest this weekend and new talks are taking place on Monday, September 9 with the Hungarian Prime Minister.

According to the nationalist leader, “Chad is a key country in the fight against immigration” as against terrorism and over the past year, Hungary, a member of NATO, has significantly deepened its relations with N’Djamena.

It has opened a humanitarian aid center and a diplomatic representation, while signing agreements in agriculture and education. It also plans to deploy troops to train local forces against jihadists.

Historically not very present in Africa, the country has developed under the aegis of Viktor Orban an all-out diplomacy, moving closer to Moscow, Beijing and even Central Asia. It has also been eyeing the Sahel for years, where it wants to play “a more active military role” to gain experience, Viktor Marsai, director of the Budapest-based Migration Research Institute, told AFP.

Since the end of the NATO mission in Afghanistan in 2021, “The Hungarian army no longer has a theatre of operations in which to sharpen its weapons in a reasonably risky environment”he specifies.

On behalf of Russia?

Hungary initially wanted to join the French-led Takuba task force in Mali, but this grouping of European special forces fizzled out. Its plans in Niger also fell through after a coup in July 2023.

Until the sudden announcement in the fall of 2023 of this mission to Chad, which surprised experts. This will be the first time that it “will have to organize everything by herself”Mr. Marsai notes, citing a challenge for the country of 9.6 million people. “It will be a test to see if the Hungarian forces are up to the task,” he emphasizes.

Especially since France plans to drastically reduce its presence in West and Central Africa after bitter disappointments. Chad, a poor and landlocked state of 18 million inhabitants, is the last in the Sahel to host its soldiers.

The former colonial power was ousted by the juntas that came to power in Bamako, Ouagadougou and Niamey, in particular to the benefit of the new Russian partner. The Americans also had to leave Niger. In the region, several countries are hosting paramilitary forces resulting from the reorganization of the Wagner group.

In this troubled geopolitical context, fears have emerged that Budapest is acting on behalf of Russia, as Viktor Orban met Vladimir Putin again in early July, provoking the anger of his European partners. And Hungary has had to refute “represent the interests of Moscow or any other foreign interest”through the voice of its special emissary to the Sahel, Laszlo Mathé.

A “dangerous” operation

Despite its disagreements with Budapest, the European Union has “greeted” his new ambitions, because he is “It is important that more international partners work with Chad”a spokesperson for the European Commission in Brussels told AFP.

But in Hungary, criticism is flying. First, on the role played by Gaspar Orban, 32, the only son of the Hungarian prime minister. A graduate of the elite British military academy Sandhurst in 2021 and promoted to captain in the Hungarian army, this former missionary in Africa discreetly participated in the negotiations, according to an investigation by the newspaper The World and the Hungarian investigation site Direct36published in early 2024.

Faced with accusations of nepotism, the government has put forward “linguistic expertise and knowledge” by Gaspar Orban, now officially appointed “liaison officer to help prepare the mission in Chad”.

The effectiveness of such a project is also questionable, with the opposition denouncing it as useless. “waste of money” and one “dangerous” operation. Even within the army, some have doubts.

In reality, “We don’t know what we’re going to do there”confides a retired high-ranking military official, speaking on condition of anonymity. And then, how will 200 men be able to make a difference in such a vast country, knowing that a third will have to stay at the base camp, he asks.