Two months before the vote, the keys to an election with renewed suspense

In the United States, the 2024 presidential election is being touted as historic. First, because of its scenario: by stepping down on July 21, Joe Biden has relaunched a second campaign, shorter than ever, while Americans are called to the polls in two months, on Tuesday, November 5. Invested to replace the outgoing president on August 22, Kamala Harris is ahead of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, in the national polls.

But the risks of this dynamic running out of steam, like the particularities of the American electoral system, do not guarantee victory for the Democratic camp. The televised debate organized on Tuesday, September 10 between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the mainstream channel ABC will be of major importance, and the suspense could remain intact until the evening of November 5.

What are the dynamics in the swing states?

National polls reflect the dynamics of American public opinion, but do not prejudge the outcome of the vote. Indeed, since the American election is conducted indirectly, with electors designated in each of the states, it is more relevant to focus on local power relations in the swing states (“pivotal” or “key” states) that could swing the election.

Largely dominant in the polls until the beginning of the summer, former Republican President Donald Trump has now been caught up with, or even distanced, in several of these pivotal states by Kamala Harris.

The Democratic candidate has had a slight but stable lead over Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin since the beginning of August, two states in the “Rust Belt” that Donald Trump managed to take from the Democrats in 2016.

The situation is, however, tighter in the other five (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania). Kamala Harris nevertheless does much better there than the voting intentions collected by Joe Biden in the spring, and she quickly caught up with the lead taken by Trump.

Which categories of voters support Harris or Trump?

In demographic terms, unsurprisingly, it is among young voters, women and the black and Hispanic electorate that Kamala Harris is recovering the most voting intentions, according to polls conducted in six of these seven pivotal states by the New York Times/Siena College in May and then in August.

Remarkably, the vice president is doing better than current President Joe Biden in all categories, including with male voters and those over 64, a sign of the incumbent president’s punishing unpopularity. According to these polls of voting intentions, the candidate even manages to recover Democratic voters lost by Joe Biden.

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