Number of transactions, credit rates, purchasing power… The real estate advertising site Seloger sees the light at the end of the tunnel and is counting on a recovery in demand in 2025.
“The worst is behind us”. After two dark years, all the signs of renewed momentum in the real estate market are present, assure the experts of the real estate listings site Seloger.com, during a back-to-school press conference on Tuesday, September 3.
Since the start of the real estate crisis, the number of sales (over 12 months) had fallen continuously until reaching its lowest point in August with 756,000 sales. But transactions should pick up again to reach 771,000 by the end of 2024, according to forecasts from Seloger and the real estate appraisal specialist Meilleursagents.
While this figure remains far from the million transactions, “synonymous with good turnover on the market”, the trend is upward. Another sign that buyers are back: the stock of goods for sale, which had been constantly increasing, is finally starting to stabilize.
“Since February, we are no longer accumulating an oversupply on the market, there are a lot of properties for sale but the dynamic is stabilizing,” explains Thomas Lefebvre, Vice President Data & Science at Seloger.com.
“Today, owners are accepting price reductions, which helps unlock sales,” he continues.
+4m² of purchasing power
The reason for this return of buyers is also to be found in the (slight) increase in household purchasing power. In two years (between January 2022 and January 2024), buyers had lost 11m² of purchasing power, mainly due to the rise in interest rates.
Since the beginning of the year, it has been rising (+4m²). Not yet enough to return to pre-crisis levels, but Seloger is counting on a gradual recovery thanks to a new (probable) drop in key rates by the ECB and therefore in real estate loan rates.
“We think that real estate purchasing power will return to its 2022 level by spring,” assures Thomas Lefebvre.
Currently, the median household can buy a property of 68 m². But according to Seloger’s forecasts, the combined effects of a drop in rates (+5.5 m²), an increase in income (+0.7 m²) and a slight drop in prices (+0.8 m²) could result in a gain of 7 m².
“A tipping point”
Thanks to this favorable situation, the entire market would take off again, benefiting from a ripple effect. “The increase in purchasing power will mechanically have an effect on demand, helped by the seasonal rebound in spring,” anticipates Thomas Lefebvre.
“It suggests a tipping point.”
On the price side, things could also stabilize. After declines in many French cities, and a low point in April 2024, prices are slowly increasing.
But on the subject, experts are divided. Some believe that prices should fall further in order to boost demand. For its part, Seloger points out that “since the market peak in July 2022, the drop has still been 5%”.
These different signs make the experts of the classifieds site say that it is a good time to buy.
“It’s an interesting time in the market to get started, we’re at a lower price, buying even if it means renegotiating your credit, it could be worth the cost,” says Thomas Lefebvre.
If all goes well, this attraction could help to get the market going again. The expert sees prices rising by 2% in 2025 and the number of transactions returning to 900,000.
