Whoever he may be, the next Minister of Economy and Finance will have as his first task a worthy objective Mission impossible : complete a budget in ten days, fifteen at the most, taking into account constitutional deadlines. Then have it voted on.
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Choosing priorities
The new state treasurer will not be starting from scratch. On his desk, on the sixth floor of Bercy, he will find a draft budget for 2025 drawn up by the resigning ministers Bruno Le Maire and Thomas Cazenave, as well as the letters sent to the ministries on August 20 to set spending ceilings. But will he have to remain faithful to this text, which, for the most part, renews the initial 2024 budget, without any increase or decrease, and perpetuates the savings decided urgently in the first half of the year? Or on the contrary, make his mark in one direction or another?
Nothing is less neutral than a budget. It is here, in each of its innumerable lines, that most political choices are concretized. However, the projects of the different parties competing for the key role in the new Assembly have little in common.
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For the left-wing coalition that came out on top, the main thing is to “responding to the social emergency, the climate challenge, the repair of public services” and to create “more tax justice”. This involves significant public spending, combined with new taxes. Thus, the New Popular Front (NFP) program plans to increase the civil servants’ index point by 10%, to revalue housing benefits by the same amount, to invest in ecology, etc. Not to mention the repeal of the pension reform, also advocated by the National Rally (RN), which would increase the pensions to be paid. In total, the NFP has estimated the cost of its program at 25 billion euros in 2024, then 100 billion in 2025.
The right, on the other hand, wants to reduce taxes, “put the accounts in order.” In their “emergency legislative pact”, the leader of the Republican Right deputies in the Assembly, Laurent Wauquiez, and that of the Republicans (LR) party in the Senate, Bruno Retailleau, propose saving 25 billion euros. The Macronists, for their part, are above all keen to preserve the supply-side policy, which is favorable to businesses, with the idea of removing the brakes on private initiative to support growth. They also want to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product in 2027, against 5.5% in 2023, as they have committed to.
Increase or decrease spending, raise or reduce taxes, respect or not European objectives, play for continuity or mark a break: at this stage, all the choices remain to be made. It will then be necessary to find a majority that supports them. Or, at least, that does not oppose them to the point of bringing down the government.
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