Exactly 467 days ago, under the command of Hamas, several thousand Islamist fighters entered Israel from the Gaza Strip, massacred around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostage.
In the 15 months that followed, Israeli defense forces bombarded and occupied large swaths of Palestinian territory. In response, Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, its Western allies as well as some Arab states, launched rockets into Israeli territory.
Qatar in action
According to various estimates, the fighting directly or indirectly caused several tens of thousands of deaths – combatants and civilians. The UN estimates that almost the entire population of Gaza was forced to flee. For its part, Israel deplores several hundred deaths within these security forces.
On Wednesday January 15, Doha announced a major breakthrough in the talks aimed at bringing an end to the bloody clashes between Israel and Hamas. In recent months, the emirate has been the site of intense exchanges between the two protagonists in the conflict – without direct discussions ever taking place; the United States, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey serving as mediators.
Three-phase agreement
If the three-phase agreement comes to fruition, the guns should begin to fall silent from January 19 at 12:15 p.m. local time for an initial period of six weeks.
At the same time, the Israeli army must withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip – from which areas exactly, it is not yet entirely clear but Qatar, host of the negotiations spoke of the densely populated areas of the enclave. A measure which would notably allow residents of the north, refugees in the south, to return to their homes – or rather what remains of them.
Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel must also be released in exchange for the release of 33 hostages held by Hamas – primarily children, women, the wounded and the sick. Finally, humanitarian organizations must once again be able to gradually access the Palestinian enclave and thus provide the Palestinians with food, medicine and other basic necessities in much greater quantities than in the past.
A second phase would then follow with the release of the remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
-Currently, 98 hostages are still in Hamas hands. But we don’t know how many are still alive. So far 36 have been declared dead. Of the more than 250 people kidnapped on October 7, 2023, more than 110 have been freed or released alive to date.
On the Palestinian side, Hamas fighters would also be among the detainees who will be released – none, however, who participated in the terrorist attack of October 7, 2023.
Fragilities and challenges
Phase 3 would be the start of reconstruction projects, a still very distant prospect, and the restitution of the bodies of hostages killed during their captivity. The political decisions that will be decisive for the region have not yet been taken. These include who will control the Gaza Strip in the future and whether the two-state solution is retained.
Also note that phases 2 and 3 of the agreement will be clarified during the first phase. If future negotiations fail, fighting will likely resume.
At the origin of the unlocking
Qatar, Türkiye, Egypt: all played a role. But it is also undoubtedly the next change of power in the United States which has given new impetus to the negotiations. Joe Biden, the outgoing Democratic president, and Donald Trump, the incoming Republican president, both claim this success.
And it is indeed probably both the efforts undertaken for months by the Biden team and then the pressure put by Donald Trump which ultimately played a role. Not to mention that Israel has also achieved many of its military objectives.
Author: Jan Walter
Adaptation: Konstanze Fischer
