The AfD is said to have won 33.1% of the vote in Thuringia, ahead of the CDU (24.3%), and 31.4% in Saxony, according to the first exit polls.
From our correspondent in Berlin
Although opposed in the media and rejected by the traditional political class, the AfD made a new breakthrough in two regional elections in eastern Germany, in Saxony and Thuringia. The far-right party won almost 30% of the vote, coming first in Thuringia for the first time and second in Saxony behind the CDU (32%), which has governed this state since reunification. « We will celebrate this historic victory », launched the strongman of the AfD in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, who represents the radical branch of the party and who managed to overthrow the current government led by the left-wing party Die Linke at the ballot box. In war against the media, Björn Höcke has banned journalists from his headquarters.
In Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, according to projections by the ARD channel, the score of the anti-immigrant party is up 7%, compared to +2.5% in Dresden. « The triumph », as characterized by the journal The mirroris however less marked than that announced in recent days by the pollsters. The tragic news item in Solingen – an Islamist attack perpetrated by an Afghan refugee in an irregular situation – does not seem to have particularly played in favour of the AfD. The latter has demanded a ban on all immigration for at least five years.
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The three parties forming the coalition at the federal level, whose policies are strongly rejected in Saxony and Thuringia, barely exceed 13%. Olaf Scholz’s SPD is barely managing to stay afloat (between 7% and 8%) while the Greens could lose their representation in the Thuringian state parliament. For its part, the FDP of Finance Minister Christian Lindner will disappear completely from both chambers. The turmoil quickly reached the coalition headquarters. SPD Secretary General Kevin Kühnert demanded better communication from Olaf Scholz. « We need to advertise our policy approach much more, listen to those who are not following and learn some lessons. The Chancellor is one of them. », warned the number one social democratic party.
Victory of populism
Apart from the AfD, only one party – which did not exist just six months ago – is doing well. It is the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), named after the former leader of the Die Linke group in the Bundestag, who slammed the door on the left-wing party at the beginning of the year. Using populist tones, the latter campaigned on the rejection of the Scholz government, denouncing in particular the increase in the energy bill and the delivery of arms to Ukraine. BSW obtained 16% and 12% of the votes respectively in Thuringia and Saxony, establishing itself as an essential political force for building coalitions. Under the cordon sanitaire rule, the traditional German parties have all ruled out allying with the AfD.
The results of the extreme right, traditionally strong in the former GDR, reflect the solidity of its establishment. The vagaries of its fortune now seem insensitive to the mobilization campaigns launched against it. The momentum of the strong demonstrations of last winter, triggered in reaction to the announcement of a secret “remigration” plan, has vanished. And during the European elections, the anger of the street had ultimately cost the party only a few percentages of votes, without managing to deny its progression.
“Ossie” identity
Germany is once again questioning the future of its unloved regions, whose particularity has not been erased after thirty-five years of reunification. Beyond the economic and social inequalities between East and West, the irreconcilable « ossie identity » (the familiar abbreviation of “Ostdeutscher”, “East German”) continues to question Berlin. « Here we are skeptics », sums up an AfD activist met at a meeting in Bautzen, who expresses his disdain for the German capital. According to a survey by the Infratest Dimap institute, 40% of the inhabitants of the former GDR define themselves explicitly as “East Germans”. Only half call themselves “Germans”.
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In the short term, however, the priority of the traditional parties will not be to heal wounds but to build government coalitions in the two Länder that can bypass the AfD. The task is less difficult in Saxony, where the CDU, which came out on top, will take the initiative to consult its potential allies, to the exclusion of the extreme right.
In Thuringia, the three parties making up the current coalition (Linke, SPD, Greens), which formed a minority government in the regional parliament, find themselves in the arithmetic impossibility of renewing their union. Before the election, the CDU had ruled out any coalition with the radical left, while agreeing to discuss with its former leader, Sahra Wagenknecht, whose contribution of votes will not be enough to form a two-party majority. In Saxony, where Die Linke’s score is over 10%, the equation is proving just as difficult. Although well-versed in the art of compromise, the German parties, whose influence is crumbling with each election, will have to perform new ideological contortions to obtain arithmetic government majorities whose contours promise to be unprecedented.
