South Korea: a political crisis in perspective after the dismissal of the president

Who leads?

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo inherited the interim presidency and will be able to govern for up to eight months, with the Constitutional Court having 180 days to rule on the validity of the president’s impeachment, with a new election ahead, if confirmed. , be organized in the following two months.

In his first statement as temporary leader, Han Duck-soo, 75, vowed to do everything possible to “ensure stable governance».

What about the impeachment procedure?

The impeachment motion against Yoon Suk Yeol was passed by Parliament with 204 votes in favor and 85 against. The last time this scenario arose, the Constitutional Court handed down its judgment 92 days after the vote of the deputies, ratifying in 2017 the dismissal of ex-president Park Geun-hye, who fell for corruption.

If the court does the same for Yoon, a presidential election must be held within 60 days. The winner would take office the following day, without the usual transition period.

The Court normally has nine justices, but three retired in October and have not been replaced. Six votes being required to validate an impeachment, a unanimous decision will be necessary to dismiss Yoon Suk Yeol.

According to experts, this outcome is “very likely”, given that the deposed president was guilty of clear violations of the Constitution by proclaiming martial law.

Read also: South Korea: President Yoon faces a new impeachment motion

It is obvious that Yoon “attempted to paralyze state functions… even the most conservative academics recognized that this had caused a crisis in the constitutional order», reports to theAFP Kim Hyun-Jung, researcher at the Korea University Institute of Law.

Will the protests continue?

It’s quite possible, analysts say.

«Those in favor of Yoon’s departure are likely to gather at Gwanghwamun Square, near the Constitutional Court”, to put pressure on, says Bae Kang-hoon of the political think tank Valid.

Protesters from both camps told theAFP that they would return to the streets until the Court’s decision.

«I will definitely demonstrate in front of the Court to demand that it reject the impeachment“, assured Cho Hee-sun, who took part in a pro-Yoon rally on Saturday before the Parliament vote.

Kim Cho-rong, in favor of impeachment, said she would continue to mobilize “these coming weeks to make (his) voice heard by the judges».

In the event of an election, who holds the rope?

The leader of the opposition, Lee Jae-myung, is seen as the big favorite by specialists.

«Lee has shown strong leadership during the days of unrest since the declaration of martial law and played a key role in passing the impeachment motion», Estimates lawyer and political columnist Yoo Jung-hoon.

According to a poll published last week, more than 52% of voters see Lee Jae-myung as the best candidate, with the others falling far behind, below 10%.

In the ranks of Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP), party leader Han Dong-hoon and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon appear to stand out.

Who is Lee Jae-myung?

Of working-class background, having left school young to help his family, Lee experienced a meteoric rise in social status until becoming a political star. He came close to death last January, after being stabbed in the neck in a street in Busan (South) by an individual who posed as one of his supporters.

In the 2022 presidential election, he lost to Yoon Suk Yeol, by the narrowest margin in South Korean history.

However, the opposition leader is at the heart of several scandals. In November, a court found him guilty of violating election laws, but the verdict was stayed. If convicted, he would be declared ineligible for the presidency.

Nevertheless, Lee “remains far ahead” of his potential competitors, Yoo thinks, recalling that the proceedings against him would also be interrupted if he won the election, due to presidential immunity.