“We have no territorial claims in Syria. We just want to make sure that the rightful owners of the country get it back. We only entered there to end the rule of the tyrant Assad”assured Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to justify the Turkish military intervention in Syria in 2016.
But behind these declarations by the head of state were already hiding, at the time, major geopolitical interests.
Ankara supported the armed opposition from day one to ultimately overthrow dictator Bashar al-Assad. Subsequently, Turkey established a permanent military presence in the Syrian rebel stronghold of Idlib.
Today, Turkey is seen as the main winner from the fall of Bashar al-Assad, to the great dismay of Russia and Iran. Indeed, Moscow was the Assad regime’s most important ally and Tehran supported it with paramilitary forces.
“Compared to the situation two weeks ago, Turkey has definitely won in Syria”explains Zaur Gasimov, expert on Turkish-Russian relations at the German-Turkish University in Istanbul.
From now on, Ankara says it wants to work closely with the future Syrian government. According to Zaur Gassimov, “Turkey will be intensely involved in reconstruction work and will remain the main investor in war-ravaged Syria.”
For politician Berk Esen of Sabanci University in Istanbul, “Ankara will also benefit economically from the reconstruction of Syria if Turkish construction companies obtain contracts in the country. Even if Turkey’s Syria policy has long been considered a failure, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly said that Assad would fall one day Now he will be able to transform the test.
Proximity to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
“Turkey played an important role in the recent offensive. In the new Syria, Ankara will use it to expand its sphere of influence”this Berk Esen.
Turkey supports the Syrian National Army (SNA) and controls large parts of northern Syria. Thanks to this presence, Ankara has also developed a certain proximity with the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Yet Turkey has repeatedly denied any involvement in the rebels’ dazzling offensive and even classifies HTS as a terrorist organization.
André Bank of the Giga Institute in Hamburg assumes that Turkey indirectly supports HTS militarily. “HTS recently acquired new weapons. It is currently using drones and missile systems. It can be assumed that they came from Türkiye”explains the Middle East expert.
His colleague Simon Mabon, of Lancaster University, shares a more moderate opinion. For him, “It’s an opaque subject. We don’t know exactly to what extent Turkey actually supported this offensive.”
Furthermore, Turkey, a NATO country, maintains good relations with Russia and Iran.
Political scientist Zaur Gasimov predicts that, despite this setback for Moscow, bilateral relations should strengthen: “Toppling Assad will make Turkey even more important to Russia.”
The future of the Kurds?
Turkey’s official objective in northern Syria is to prevent the creation of a territorial unity of Kurdish forces. Ankara fears that a Kurdish state will emerge in the region.
Currently, Turkish-backed forces are taking action against Kurdish militias and in recent days have taken control of areas in northeastern Syria, including the town of Manbij.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition that controls parts of northern Syria, are considered the Syrian branch of the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, classified as a terrorist organization by the European Union since 1984.
“In the future we could see an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria, like in Iraq, with the difference that in the mountains of northern Iraq it is easier for the Kurds to defend their territories, My name is Berk Esen. In the Syrian plain it could be more difficult.”
Furthermore, despite the reassuring tone of HTC leaders, no one can guarantee how the group will behave in the future towards Kurds and other minorities such as Christians.
Turkey wants refugees to return
Turkey shares a border with Syria of around 900 kilometers and hosts around three million Syrians who have fled the war.
The government is under great pressure, however, as resentment against Syrians has continued to grow in recent years, while the Turkish economy falters.
“We attach great importance to the territorial integrity of Syria”declared Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on December 8. He believes that “The millions of Syrians who had to leave their homes can now return there.”
In Türkiye, there is a growing expectation that this will happen as quickly as possible. The country has just strengthened the capacity of its border posts to allow from 3,000 to 15,000 and up to 20,000 people per day.
