From January 1, 2025, new regulations on CO2 emissions and adjustments to ecological bonuses promise to redefine the landscape of the European automotive industry. These reforms, although essential for the ecological transition, deeply worry manufacturers and risk having significant repercussions for consumers.
The new rules in 2025: what changes
CO2 standards, known as CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy)impose a strict limit on average emissions per car sold. From 2025, this limit will be further reduced, requiring an acceleration in sales of electric vehicles (EV) and hybrids. Here are the key changes:
- Reinforced objectives : Manufacturers will have to drastically reduce their average emissions or face heavy financial penalties.
- Dissuasive sanctions : Manufacturers exceeding the limit will pay 90 euros per gram of excess CO2 and per vehicle sold.
- Impact on thermals : Thermal vehicles, already under pressure, will gradually be marginalized.
Consequences for thermal and electric cars
1. For thermal vehicles :
- Price increase expected to compensate for fines.
- Decreased availability of gasoline and diesel models.
- Adaptation via hybridization to reduce emissions.
2. For electric vehicles (EV) :
- Acceleration of investments in charging infrastructure.
- Risk of battery supply shortage.
- Possible price increase due to increasing demand.
| Category | Impact | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Thermal | Risk of gradual disappearance | Essence et diesel |
| Electric | Growing demand but logistical constraints | Tesla, Renault Zoe |
| Hybrids | Intermediate solution | Toyota Prius |
An economic and ecological dilemma
Luca de Meo, CEO of Renault and president of theACEA (Association of European Automobile Manufacturers), stressed at a conference in Brussels that the lack of flexibility could cost “billions of euros” in fines and further highlights the urgency of the situation. These funds, necessary to innovate, would be redirected to paying penalties. France and other member states are calling for a postponement, but the European Commission considers this debate premature.
A costly transition for consumers
For buyers:
- Price increase : The costs of vehicles, especially thermal ones, will increase.
- Uncertainty for users : Thermal owners could suffer a significant discount.
For manufacturers:
- Massive investments in EVs to meet quotas.
- Difficult adaptation to the decline in household purchasing power.
As Renault and other manufacturers call for increased flexibilitybrands like BMW or Stellantis believe they can meet the objectives. Oliver Zipse, boss of BMW, considers the standards achievable thanks to hybridization and EVs. However, this transition requires unprecedented coordination between public and private actors.
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