The Paris Stock Exchange ended in the green on Wednesday, a few hours before the vote on a motion of censure in the National Assembly which should, in all likelihood, bring down the Barnier government.
The CAC 40 gained 0.66% to 7,303.28 points, an increase of 47.86 points. On Tuesday, it gained 0.26%.
The bond market ended stable. The interest rate on French loans over ten years reached 2.90%, the same level as the day before. Its German equivalent was at 2.06%.
“We should never exaggerate the influence of politics on the stock markets. This can cause some turmoil, but which is rarely lasting,” believes Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
“The markets are putting things into perspective. France is not Greece, and we are not in 2012. The ECB can act, and European mechanisms exist to avoid a financial crisis,” agrees Vincent Juvyns, member of the JPMorgan strategy team. AM.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier was forced on Monday to take responsibility for the Social Security budget, a first 49.3 synonymous with a motion of censure and probably a fall, since the left and the extreme right announced that they would vote for it in unison Wednesday evening.
Paris was also buoyed, like the other European stock markets, by the figures for private sector activity in the euro zone in November, contracting for the second time in the last three months, according to the PMI Flash index published on Friday by S&P Global.
“For the markets, this bad news is good news, because it increases the probability of rate cuts by the European Central Bank during its next meetings,” Vincent Juvyns explains to AFP.
In the United States too, job creation figures in November, lower than expected by the markets, “augur of monetary easing at the next Fed meeting” on December 17 and 18, according to Vincent Juvyns .
Employment has become one of the most scrutinized parameters to determine the continuation of the Fed’s monetary policy. A dynamic labor market is a sign of good economic health, which reduces the need to lower policy rates.
On the contrary, a slowdown gives central bankers more room to ease policy, which is favorable for stocks.
The American unemployment figures in November, published Friday, considered to be the most complete, will be particularly scrutinized.
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The Orange telecoms group lost 3.01% to 9.41 euros after a downgrade in the recommendations made by Morgan Stanley.
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