Can Renaissance and LR join forces to form a new government?

Can Renaissance and LR join forces to form a new government?
Can Renaissance and LR join forces to form a new government?

After losing its relative majority, Ensemble is stuck between the blocs of the New Popular Front and the National Rally. Some deputies and ministers from the presidential camp are calling for an alliance with the Republicans “historic channel”.

The tectonics of the political plates in full upheaval. “The question will be whether a coherent coalition is capable of being formed to reach 289 deputies”, wondered the Élysée on Sunday July 7. Because none of the three blocs (NFP, Ensemble, RN), reached the threshold of the absolute majority at the end of the second round of the early legislative elections.

After the loss of the relative majority, how to govern? This is the dilemma that Emmanuel Macron and the presidential camp will be faced with very quickly from the start of the parliamentary session, and probably until 2027. According to our Elabe projection for BFMTV, RMC, and La Tribune on Sunday, the Renaissance group will only have between 160 and 162 deputies during the next legislature. Compared to 245 deputies elected in 2022.

He is stuck on his left by the New Popular Front, between 184 and 186 deputies (150 outgoing), which against all expectations, becomes the first group in the Assembly. And on his far right, by the National Rally group and its allies, between 141 and 143 elected representatives (88 outgoing).

“The left wants to govern, but will never govern,” a Renaissance executive told BFMTV. “An NFP Prime Minister falls in three days. We will have to enter into a German-style coalition and that will take time.”

For Darmanin, “we must govern from the right”

Who then will participate in a “coherent coalition”? A real political sea serpent since 2022, the alliance with the Republicans now looks like life insurance for Macronie. The “historical channel” Republicans, opposed to the alliance signed by Éric Ciotti with Marine le Pen, have in fact saved their skin. They secure 67 to 69 seats (62 outgoing).

“The country is on the right. We must govern on the right. And not have a coalition with La France Insoumise and the New Popular Front,” assures Gérald Darmanin, a former loyalist of Nicolas Sarkozy.

Re-elected in his constituency in the North, the Minister of the Interior, who began his political career in the UMP, already assured Le Figaro on June 23. “There is hope to be rebuilt for the people of the right and the center,” he pleaded before the first round of the legislative elections.

Benjamin Haddad (Ensemble), re-elected MP for the 14th constituency of Paris, echoes the same sentiment. The former national secretary of the UMP (now Les Républicains) wants unity. “We are reaching out to the Republicans,” he said on BFMTV this Sunday evening. “I have been saying this for two years, I want us to work with them.”

A France “never so right-wing”?

On the executive side, the hand is also extended, under the seal of anonymity. “The country has never been so right-wing and the left would be in power?”, wonders a minister to BFMTV. “We have to go to the Republicans for a majority,” adds a leader of the presidential coalition.

An appeal launched on X (ex Twitter), Gil Avérous, mayor of Châteauroux, who left Les Républicains in 2023. “I am once again calling on my political family, the Republicans, to create a coalition with Renaissance, the Modem and Horizons,” he launched.

The alliance presented as inevitable this evening does not, however, resolve the problem. It would allow the presidential camp to reach around 225 deputies. Far from the absolute majority, set at 289 deputies.

Mathieu Coaches with Nicolas Ghorzi

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