Who will win these 2024 French legislative elections? Here are the results of the latest polls

Who will win these 2024 French legislative elections? Here are the results of the latest polls
Who will win these 2024 French legislative elections? Here are the results of the latest polls

Will the National Rally obtain an absolute majority? Will Jordan Bardella be the new Prime Minister of France? These are all questions that the French are asking themselves before going to vote this Sunday, July 7 for the second round of the 2024 legislative elections. As a reminder, Emmanuel Macron rushed this election after dissolving the National Assembly when the results of the European elections were announced. Faced with the triumph of the extreme right, the French president took the lead and surprised everyone.

Having come out on top in the first round (33.4%), Jordan Bardella’s National Rally seemed confident for the rest of the vote. However, the latest polls show that nothing is decided yet. Indeed, the withdrawal of many candidates to block the far right could change the situation this Sunday. Marine Le Pen’s successor may not be able to carry out his plans. A quick overview of the results of the latest polls conducted before the second round of these French legislative elections.

“Paradoxically, what worries me now is that the National Rally is failing to implement its programme”

Results of the 2024 French legislative elections: the latest polls show the National Rally in the lead, but…

According to an Ipsos-Talan survey of more than 10,000 voters for Le Monde, France Télévisions and Radio France, the National Rally and its allies would win between 175 and 205 seats in this second round of legislative elections. It would therefore be the largest group in the National Assembly since the New Popular Front would win between 145 and 175 seats and the presidential majority (Total) 118 to 148 seats.

The same is true, according to another survey. National Rally should come out on top in the poll, according to the results of the Elabe Institute poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche published on July 5, with 200 to 230 seats. It would thus become the leading political force in the National Assembly, but would not win an absolute majority. New Popular Front would obtain between 165 and 190 seats, while the presidential majority (Together) should be satisfied with only 120 to 140 seats.

According to the Toluna Harris Interactive survey carried out from July 2 to 3 for Challenges, M6 and RTL, the National Rally would win between 190 and 220 seats in the second round of these legislative elections. Which means that the far-right party would not have the absolute majority it covets. In second place on the podium, the New Popular Front would obtain 159 to 183 deputies in the National Assembly. presidential majority (Together) limits the damage compared to what was announced but should still only be satisfied with 110 to 135 seats. Finally, The Republicans would have only 30 to 50 deputies, according to these projections from Toluna Harris Interactive.

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Olivier Faure, Jordan Bardella and Gabriel Attal

Who will win the duels of this second round? What the polls say

A survey conducted during this period between the two rounds, published on Tuesday, July 2, reveals that the French are not overwhelmingly in favor of an absolute majority won by the National Rally. Indeed, according to the Ifop poll for LCI published on July 2, only 37% of voters say they are in favor of the RN obtaining an absolute majority, or 289 deputies or more. “This is especially the case for French people who voted for an RN candidate in the first round (91%), but much less so for those who voted for an LR (34%), Ensemble (7%) or Nouveau Front populaire (NFP, 6%)”, explains LCI. 16% of French people want Jordan Bardella’s party to obtain only a relative majority. 47% of French people are opposed to a majority, regardless of which, for the RN.

Still according to this survey, the RN candidates are not the favorites in most of the duels during this second round:

-Facing a green or socialist candidate of the New Popular Front, it is the latter who would be more popular (53%) compared to the RN candidate

-Facing a candidate of the presidential majorityit is once again the latter who would have the advantage (53%)

-Facing a Republican candidatethis figure even rises to 56%

-Facing a candidate of La France Insoumiseon the other hand, voters are more undecided (50% for the RN, 50% for LFI)

2024 legislative elections in France: here is what a first poll says about the results of the second round

What were the results of the first round of the French legislative elections?

The French overwhelmingly voted for the National Rally in the first round of these 2024 legislative elections. Jordan Bardella’s party won 33.4% of the vote on Sunday, June 30. Behind the far-right party is the New Popular Front with 27.98% of the vote. The presidential majority had to settle for 20.76% of the vote.

The French press reacts after the first round of the French legislative elections: “Historians will have only one word to describe what happened”

Find the results of these legislative elections live on La Libre before 8 p.m.

Belgian websites and newspapers (such as La Libre, DH, Le Soir, RTBF, -, RTL, etc.) can reveal the results of the legislative election (and presidential election, if applicable) in France before 8 p.m., unlike the French media, which are required to wait until this time and for all polling stations to close before being able to broadcast the first figures and polls.

Why do French media have to restrict themselves? Because of Article 2 of the electoral law of July 19, 1977, which prohibits all media in the country from publishing, broadcasting or commenting on new polls related to the presidential election, from Friday midnight to Sunday at 8 p.m. Article L.48-2 of the electoral code also prohibits any candidate “from bringing to the public’s attention a new element of electoral controversy at a time when his opponents do not have the opportunity to respond usefully before the end of the electoral campaign”. All in order not to influence the current election.

And #radiolondres? This is a trick on social networks to give information without falling into illegality: for example, by giving code names to the different parties. The name of the hashtag originates from the Second World War and the radio station that London broadcast to France, in order to send coded messages to the French and foil the plans of the Nazis.

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