Marine Le Pen raises the stakes

Concession on electricity, gesture on immigration, Michel Barnier tried Thursday to convince the National Rally to give up censoring him, but the Lepenist party still threatens to overthrow him if he does not respond to his ultimatum by Monday .

On Thursday, November 28, Michel Barnier gave up on increasing taxes on electricity. A concession to try to prevent the RN from voting on a motion of censure. A step back which confirms what we already knew. The Barnier government is politically weak and dependent on the RN. Deprived of a majority in the Assembly, it owes its survival only to the indulgence of Marine Le Pen. Hence this concession on the budget, even if it was also demanded by other groups, followed by another which also appears among the demands of the Lepenist party: a reduction in the basket of state medical aid services. granted to illegal immigrants, and therefore a reduction in its credits. Announcements which immediately aroused indignation from the left.

Could this be enough to change Marine Le Pen's mind? For now, no. The leader of the far right hastened to raise the stakes by directly setting an ultimatum. She is now asking Michel Barnier, by Monday morning, “the abandonment of the reimbursement of certain medications”and the reindexation of all retirement pensions to inflation on January 1, under penalty of censoring his government next week, after the triggering of article 49.3 on the Social Security financing bill. Marine Le Pen is furthering her advantage, but this outbidding also illustrates her strategic dilemma. In fact, she's up against the wall.

On the one hand, she could choose to reap these influential successes and continue to influence Michel Barnier's decisions by granting him a reprieve of a few months. Except that this position risks making it accountable tomorrow for the government's balance sheet. A posture of radical opposition, and therefore censorship, is more comfortable. With Marine Le Pen at its head for 14 years, the FN, now RN, claims to present itself as a credible government party. But so far each time it finds itself at a crossroads, the true nature of the far-right party has resurfaced, that of a populist and “anti-system” movement. A nature illustrated by the violence of Marine Le Pen's remarks against justice during the trial of the fictitious RN assistants.

As soon as the exercise of power seems to approach, Marine Le Pen reconnects with her old protest demons and prefers to flatter her base rather than seduce new conservative voters concerned about stability. At the risk that they will blame it tomorrow for the financial chaos that could result from the political crisis that it threatens to trigger.