The prospect of a motion of censure before the adoption of the finance bill for 2025 agitates the political class, but also constitutional specialists.
“If there is no budget, it is extremely serious.” On the set of TF1, Michel Barnier warned the political class on Tuesday, November 26, and called public opinion to witness. “It is the vote on the nation’s budget that is in question”insisted the Prime Minister, while the rumors of a vote of a motion of censure which would bring down his government are more and more insistent. The return to the National Assembly of the Social Security financing bill for 2025, Monday, December 2, could provide oppositions with the first opportunity to try to overthrow the executive. And this at the very moment when Michel Barnier's government is supposed to finalize its finance bill for next year, currently being debated in the Senate, after having been rejected by the deputies.
The National Rally has been increasing the pressure for several days. “If the texts do not move, the government puts itself in a position of censorship”warned MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy on RTL. Marine Le Pen, the president of the RN group, also upped the ante. “Simple discussions are better than nothing, but they will not be enough”she said on the social network X, in reaction to a press article reporting negotiations between her camp and the government. The leader of the deputies of La France insoumise, Mathilde Panot, has already warned the Prime Minister. “Whether he likes it or not, he will still be censored”released the one who plans to table a motion of censure with her allies from the New Popular Front on X. “The only weapon I have is censorship.”also slipped Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party, on franceinfo.
On the side of the “common base”, this alliance of deputies from the former presidential majority and the right who support the government, the time has come to dramatize the issues. “It is a catastrophe if the government falls, it would send a devastating signal to the markets”laments a Macronist deputy “very worried”. “We are going through an extremely serious moment, decisive for the country. France is at a crossroads”said government spokesperson Maud Bregeon on franceinfo. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, head of the Horizons party, assured on RTL on November 19 that a “financial crisis” would follow the political crisis in the event of government censorship.
“There will be a storm and serious turbulence in the financial markets.”
Michel Barnier, Prime Ministeron TF1
A dark scenario vigorously contested on the opposition side. “These are lies. (…) At no time is it about paralyzing the country”exclaimed André Chassaigne, the leader of the communist deputies, during a press conference. “There is no risk of 'shutdown' in our institutions“insisted Marine Le Pen in Le Figaro. “We have no possible 'shutdown' situation in France”repeated Mathilde Panot.
“Even in the event of censorship, taxes would be lifted, civil servants paid, pensions paid, and medical care reimbursed.”
Marine Le Pen, president of the RN group in the National Assemblyin “Le Figaro”
This expression of “shutdown” directly refers to the American example where a law, The Anti-Deficiency Act, enacted in 1884, prohibits federal agencies from spending or obligating funds without prior authorization from Congress. In the event of a paralysis of the budget, hundreds of thousands of civil servants are then technically unemployed. The situation has already occurred numerous times, with a record 35 days of “shutdown” under Donald Trump between 2018 and 2019.
Is this scenario possible in France if the government was censored before the budget vote or during this vote? “Our texts are well done, our Constitution and our rules are there. (…) There is no disaster scenario”assured Yaël Braun-Pivet, the president of the National Assembly, on Sud Radio. “It’s almost impossible. There should be no bill tabled. But there is one”, confirms Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas.
“The possibility that we will not have a budget before the end of the year is quite serious. This would be unprecedented under the Fifth Republic!”
Benjamin Morel, constitutionalistat franceinfo
According to him, tthree scenarios would then be on the table. In the first, a new government would take over the finance bill because “the text does not die if the government falls”. The new team would then have until December 31 to have it voted on since it is on this date that the President of the Republic must promulgate it at the latest.
A resigning government could also take up the text or submit a new one. “in the name of an imperative to continue the life of the nation”supposes constitutionalist Thibaud Mulier, teacher-researcher at Paris-Nanterre University, because there is no case law from the Constitutional Council on the subject. However, from a political point of view, the option of the resigning government which would succeed in having the budget adopted seems quite improbable. “Michel Barnier, at the head of a resigning government, could no longer use 49.3, so it would be better to quickly appoint a new Prime Minister who can take responsibility”recalls Benjamin Morel.
Second hypothesis: a new government or a resigning government can act by ordinance on the budget from December 21. “If Parliament has not decided within 70 days, the provisions of the project may be brought into force by ordinance”thus provides article 47 of the Constitution. “The last version which would pass by ordinance would be the one adopted by the last chamber, therefore in this case the Senate.specifies Benjamin Morel.
“On the legal level, the scenario of the orders holds but on the political level, it is eruptive.”
Benjamin Morel, constitutionalistat franceinfo
Last scenario: separate the two parts of the finance bill, with expenditure on one side and revenue on the other. “You apply the expenditure section through the 'provisional twelfths', this financial legislative text which allows expenditure to be reissued each month, but this does not allow it to last long. And for revenue, Parliament would vote to authorize the government to collect taxes over a temporary period This is a special law which was used once, in 1980, when the Constitutional Council censored the budget. for a procedural reason, explains Benjamin Morel.
This is detailed in article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws. “This would make it possible to lift the tax on January 1st but it would be a very degraded scenario which would not prevent us from having to pass a finance law in 2025, even if this would not lead to an American-style 'shutdown'”explains Thibaud Mulier. “The government can present to Parliament what is called a special law to collect taxes from January 1, there can be renewal of expenditure by decree to be able to pay civil servants, retirees, etc..”also assured Yaël Braun-Pivet on Sud Radio.
The hypothesis was raised by the Prime Minister on TF1 Tuesday evening. “If the government falls, there are emergency measures that we take with Parliament to be able to pay. But, this does not cover the entire year 2025 and above all it does not prevent either the crisis or the mistrust of the financial markets, nor that everything stops and we have to start again”warned Michel Barnier. “We will be forced to vote again. We are completely irrational”said a leading minister to France Télévisions a few days ago. Political uncertainty has never been greater.
