the essential
The campaign for the first round of the legislative elections ends this Friday at midnight. There are 4,010 candidates who will be running for the French people’s vote this Sunday, June 30. Here are the latest polls of voting intentions and their evolution since June 10.
Since the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9, more than twenty polls have been published on the voting intentions of the French in the legislative elections. As the first round of the election campaign ends this Friday, June 28 at midnight, here are the trends determined by the main research and opinion institutes.
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The dynamics of the National Rally
As early as June 10, the Harris Interactive and Opinion Way institutes both credited the National Rally with 34% of voting intentions in the first round, largely in the lead. A trend that has slightly increased since then, notably thanks to the reinforcement of the RN’s “allies”, namely the LR deputies loyal to Eric Ciotti. Two days before the election, this alliance has garnered 36 % voting intentions, according to the Elabe and Ipsos institutes and up to 37% pour Opinion Way.
The New Popular Front in ambush
During the first days of the campaign, the left-wing political parties had not yet united under the banner of the New Popular Front. The total voting intentions for each of them stood at around 22%, or 3% less than in the previous legislative elections. The launch of the NFP created real momentum and propelled the left to nearly 30% of voting intentions. A score which evolved according to the procrastination over the name of the one who would represent this alliance at Matignon. Over the last two days, the NFP has increased very slightly, at 27% according to Elabe, 28 % according to Opinion Way and 29 % selon Ipsos.
The presidential majority is lagging behind
Since the first polls and until today, voting intentions for presidential majority candidates (Renaissance, Horizon, Modem, UDI) have evolved marginally. They are sailing, according to polling institutes, between 18 and 21%to compare with a score of more than 25% in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections. In the latest polls, this group called “Together for the Republic” collects 19,5 % voting intentions at Ipsos, and 20 % at Elabe and Opinion Way.
Republicans in retreat
The Republicans have been weakened by an internal split between those in favor of an alliance with the RN, supported by Eric Ciotti, and those who reject it. However, voting intentions for this party have remained around 8 to 9% since the start of the campaign. The latest Ifop poll credits LR with 6% of the vote in the first round, that of Ipsos with 8 % and that of Elabe of 9 %.
Screenings at the Assembly
The projection of these voting intentions in number of seats in the National Assembly is always a perilous exercise before the first round for the polling institutes. Indeed, the legislative elections will give rise to 577 different elections and it is difficult to predict who will withdraw or who will join the second round. Ifop plans to 180 to 210 seats for the NFP, 75 to 110 for the presidential majority, 23 to 50 seats for LR and 220 to 260 seats for the RN and its allies.
