Morocco-France. RN victory in the French legislative elections: what the next day will be like

Morocco-France. RN victory in the French legislative elections: what the next day will be like
Morocco-France. RN victory in the French legislative elections: what the next day will be like

The announcement had the effect of a real earthquake on Sunday June 9. A far-right political group hitherto surrounded in the complex French political game, the National Rally (RN) emerged as the big winner in the European elections. A clear victory for the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, which gathered 31% of the votes during the ballot. In the process, the announcement made by French President Emmanuel Macron of the dissolution of the National Assembly and the organization of early legislative elections, the first round of which is scheduled for the 30th of the month – and the second for the 7th July. Here again, the far-right party has every chance of winning, even if it will have to jostle with a left which has decided to form a (popular) front to counter it. This will be, if necessary, a first in France under the 5th Republic. Emmanuel Macron, who is playing his best, will then have to deal, for three long years, with a head of government announced automatically: Jordan Bardella. This, while waiting for a presidential election in 2027 for which the RN is already sharpening its weapons. Even if nothing is decided yet.

Read also: Destruction of the Algiers regime, internal chaos and export of the conflict to France: the scenarios of an Algerian debacle in the event of war against Morocco analyzed in a French essay

Yesterday Tuesday, Jordan Bardella put a pause on his ambitions by specifying that he will only agree to become Prime Minister if, and only if, the National Rally obtains an absolute majority in the National Assembly at the end of the ballot, i.e. 289 seats out of 557. “I will need an absolute majority. If we are in a situation of relative majority as is the case since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022, then the Prime Minister cannot act. I am not going to sell the French measures or actions that I could not carry out. did he declare. A new position which reshuffles many cards, the RN feeling President Macron’s trap closing. Because accepting power with a relative majority would prohibit her from governing and would therefore jeopardize Marine Le Pen’s chances in the 2027 presidential election.

The question arises: what does the possibility of a victory for the RN in the legislative elections imply for Morocco? The immediate effect is that the momentum for “reconciliation” taken in recent months between Rabat and Paris would inevitably be impacted. An official visit by the current French Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, was planned to Morocco from July 3 to 5. This trip was to constitute a new stage in the process of warming relations between the two capitals after two years of diplomatic blizzard. Preceded by numerous other stays in Morocco by French political leaders and ministers, it was mainly seen as a prelude to an upcoming state visit by Emmanuel Macron to the Kingdom… However, the dynamic will not be called into question, as long as far from it.

To zoom out, and if a takeover of French power by the RN, which makes the fight against immigration its main hobbyhorse, can arouse many fears, a cold reading brings out much more nuanced perspectives. One thing is certain: unlike the Algiers regime, Morocco is diplomatically popular with the French right, including the most radical. Moreover, as recently as October 23, Marine Le Pen, president of the RN group in the dissolved National Assembly, openly criticized President Macron for the crisis caused with the Kingdom.

Read also: Interview with Bernard Lugan: “the Algerian authorities understood that their fight for the Polisario was lost”

In a speech in the French hemicycle, the former candidate for the presidential election has already announced the color. “The president no longer speaks with Morocco and has strayed into an Algerian alliance of a sterile nature“, she declared. Suffice to say that between Algiers and Rabat, the RN has made its choice. A choice clearly stated during the presentation of its Maghreb policy for “the Morocco that is dear to us» (see video at 19:17).

We also remember, with the 17 MEPs from the Spanish PSOE, the MEPs from the RN, 13 in total, were among the few to vote against a non-binding resolution, but frankly hostile to Morocco, from the European Parliament, relating to the freedom of press. This was adopted on January 19, 2023 with 356 votes in favor, notably those of President Macron’s Renew group.

European deputy on behalf of the RN, of which he is the spokesperson, and anticipated for the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs in the event of the party’s victory in the legislative elections, Thierry Mariani did not hesitate, immediately, to denounce the maneuver.

If water has since flowed under the bridges and President Macron has returned to better feelings towards Morocco, Le Pen has never hidden his admiration for the Moroccan model. This was the case at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. “We cannot have a Prime Minister who is delighted that our national production of masks is at 8 million, which is completely derisory per week, when Morocco makes 5 million per day!», Compared the leader of the RN on the set of 8 p.m. France2.

«As a bonus, we will have to take into account a long-awaited clarification from France regarding its position on the Sahara, breaking with the “at the same time” which has prevailed for too long within the current executive.», predicts political scientist Mohamed Bouden, president of the Atlas center for the analysis of political and institutional indicators.

Read also: MEP Thierry Mariani: “It is not up to the European Parliament to wipe its feet on Moroccan justice”

Thierry Mariani has also always advocated an immediate unblocking of the question of recognition of the Moroccan nature of the Sahara. He has also continued to warn against the danger represented by the Polisario, and its mentor Algeria, for peace in the region.

Among Marine Le Pen’s supporters, there is also Éric Ciotti, president of the Les Républicains party, who had already called from Rabat for this rebalancing and recognition by France of the “sovereignty»Moroccan on Western Sahara.

Renowned academic and president in France of the Institute for Prospective and Security in Europe, Emmanuel Dupuy is convinced of this. “Even if French recognition of the Moroccan character of the Sahara falls within the constitutional prerogatives of the President of the Republic, the cohabitation that he will have to lead with a government committed to the Moroccan cause could accelerate a process that has already begun, in particular with the recent French announcement of support for investments made in the southern provinces“, he explains.

Read also: Sahara: Eric Ciotti expresses the firm support of the Les Républicains party for the Moroccan autonomy plan

The train is moving. It’s all about knowing how quickly, knowing that France has become aware “that its alignment with Algeria was not only a failure, but proved counterproductive with regard to Morocco, a country which, in the meantime, has shone by diversifying its partnerships and alliances with numerous great powers, notably the United States“, supports Mohamed Bouden.

Conversely, where France’s relations risk marking a major shift is with Algeria, which has until now benefited from an assumed tropism of the Macron administration. Without any benefit. With the RN in charge, the situation will radically change. This is evidenced by the real “fright” felt on the side of Algiers, whose media are currently firing on all cylinders. “France is in shock”, stammers All about Algeria, just forgetting to specify that the shock is rather at Al Mouradia and at the HQ of the Algerian army that it is most heard. “A lobbyist from Algeria’s sworn enemy Makhzen at the head of the Quai d’Orsay?», asks Algeriapatriotic, spokesperson for the clan of generals responsible for the massacres in Algeria during the Black Decade. In the event that Thierry Mariani is appointed head of French diplomacy, he threatens a breakdown in diplomatic relations between Algiers and Paris.

The Algerian regime fears the worst and is worried about the future of events concerning relations between the two countries. During the campaign for the 2022 presidential election, Marine Le Pen could not be clearer on this subject, promising a policy “completely opposite» of what has been done in recent decades with regard to Algeria.

Read also: How France’s economic recognition of the Moroccan nature of the Sahara paralyzes the Algerian regime

While Algiers prides itself on its trade which reached 12 billion euros in 2023 with France, as an argument in what amounts to “gas for food”, the French administration under the RN plans to turn everything upside down. “We are not economically dependent on Algeria or its gas, and it is above all in Algeria’s interest that relations with France are healthy and peaceful.», had launched Le Pen during the same electoral campaign.

“Muscular language”

Forget submitting to memorial blackmail, make way for muscular language! In January 2023, Jordan Bardella, head of the French government in the event of a large victory for the RN, set the tone: “Algeria only hears and understands force in diplomatic matters. We must be respected by Algeria».

On the program, in particular, a reduction in the number of visas for Algerian nationals. Bardella had at the same time conditioned the issuance of visas and transfers of funds by the resumption by Algeria of its irregular nationals on French territory.

Having joined the RN, Marion Maréchal did not pull any punches on the subject in July 2023. “We are not Algeria’s daycare“, she had already thundered, estimating that “42% of Algerians have no activity in France and they represent the first foreign nationality in prison. It is high time to put an end to the Franco-Algerian preferential immigration regime», she demanded.

Suffice it to say that the 1968 Franco-Algerian agreement on immigration, for which the right and the French far right are loudly demanding the revocation, will certainly be canceled if the RN or even the right heir to De Gaulle arrives at the power.

The RN is also in the refusal of any “repentance”. “If all these ”promises” were to be kept, in the case of the extremist movement’s accession to power, we would have to wonder what will remain of the Franco-Algerian relationship.», écrit TSA. This site doesn’t think it’s so right.

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