Immigration raises concerns among part of the Swiss population, which must be taken seriously. But instead of tackling the real problems and looking for concrete solutions, the popular initiative “No Switzerland for 10 million! (Sustainability Initiative),” which formally came to fruition in May, creates a host of new problems. Indeed, as in 2020, during the vote on termination initiative I, which the people firmly rejected, the SVP explicitly intends to put an end to the free movement of people with this initiative. According to its June press release, the Federal Council rejects this initiative, a decision which economiesuisse welcomes.
Acceptance of SVP Initiative II implies an end to the bilateral path
The new initiative calls for Switzerland’s permanent resident population not to exceed ten million people before 2050. If this threshold is crossed before then, the agreement on the free movement of people with the EU must be terminated. From then on, the entire package of bilateral agreements I with the EU would disappear; including agreements on land and air transport, agriculture, research, public procurement and the removal of technical barriers to trade. In fact, the “guillotine clause” binds the seven bilateral agreements I together. This means that, in the event that one agreement was terminated, the other six would automatically disappear. Acceptance of the initiative would imply the end of the proven bilateral path with the EU and would have negative consequences for Switzerland’s prosperity, economy and security.
Bilateral agreements with the EU constitute an essential pillar of Switzerland’s prosperity
The EU is by far Switzerland’s main trading partner. If we consider the volume of trade, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria are about as important as China; Haute-Savoie and Ain are more important than Japan, and the Italian border regions are more important than India. Switzerland is at the heart of European industry and our value chains are closely intertwined. It is not surprising that Switzerland is the country that benefits the most from the European internal market per capita.
Since the conclusion of Bilateral I in 1999, the Swiss population has become richer by 18,123 USD per capita on average. This increase in wealth is almost twice as high as in Germany and almost three times higher than in France. Furthermore, Switzerland is, so to speak, in a situation of full employment. This is not self-evident: in these uncertain times, marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, stable and functional contractual relations with the EU, our main trading partner, are of fundamental importance for Switzerland’s prosperity and security.
Tomorrow too we will be dependent on immigration to the labor market
The Termination II initiative ignores the dislocations caused by demographic change. The number of workers retiring in Switzerland is already higher than that of young people entering working life. This trend will strengthen massively in the coming years. Thanks to the free movement of people with the EU, Switzerland can recruit the necessary workforce without excessive formalities when it struggles to find enough personnel on its territory. Without the workforce from the EU, of which our country has a crucial need, Switzerland risks suffering company departures, a reduction in tax revenues, a decline in innovation, in supply and the level of services. All of this would lead to a widespread decline in prosperity and quality of life for all. Without the contribution of foreign labor, the AVS would quickly face difficulties.
We must ensure prosperity and sustainably solve real problems
A high quality of life in a demographically growing Switzerland is also possible without the termination initiative II. However, the concerns of part of the population must also be taken seriously. We need adequate measures to combat the undesirable consequences of immigration and, ultimately, effective solutions in the areas of employment, asylum, housing and infrastructure. Switzerland must continue to increase its productivity, make better use of local labor potential, rigorously apply asylum laws, quickly create more housing for the population and urgently eliminate infrastructure bottlenecks. That would already be a good start. A rigid cap on the number of inhabitants would, however, be very damaging for Switzerland. This measure could turn against us. The Termination Initiative II solves no problems in our country, but creates a multitude of them.
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