Michelle Langrand (Geneva Solutions)
Published on November 11, 2024 at 4:47 p.m. / Modified on November 11, 2024 at 9:06 p.m.
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As COP29 begins in Baku, a peace agreement is close to being reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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This agreement could only be partial, a major subject has been deferred: the “Zangezur corridor”, a road which would allow Azerbaijan to cross the territory of its neighbor to connect its exclave, Nakhchivan.
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Observers are worried: once the cameras are turned off and the heads of state return home, the risk of a new military escalation could increase.
Few expect the UN climate summit that began Monday in Baku to produce concrete results, but some are hoping for at least one thing: that it will bring some peace to the region. It is this perspective which also allowed Baku to obtain the organization of COP29, just three months after having taken – in 2023 – control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist region then populated by more than 100,000 Armenians. . Yerevan, devastated by this lightning military intervention, only accepted its rival’s candidacy after securing an exchange of prisoners.
As COP29 dawns, the two countries have moved toward concluding a peace agreement that provides for the restoration of diplomatic relations, but many key issues arising from the thirty-year-old conflict remain unresolved. Observers fear that the enthusiasm of Western countries around this agreement could turn against them: the risk of a military escalation could increase once the cameras are turned off and the heads of state leave.
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